Padres not giving Jurickson Profar qualifying offer still has free agency in question

The San Diego Padres had a number of interesting questions related to Jurickson Profar heading into this offseason. Coming off the best season of Profar's career in 2024, the soon-to-be 32 year old was set to become a free agent immediately after playing last season on a bargain one-year deal. San Diego clearly valued his contributions and Profar expressed his desire to return, so getting a deal done should be easy, right?

Well, not exactly. Profar would likely love to return and the Padres would likely love to have him back, but both sides have their own financial considerations to reckon with. Profar deserves a raise to be sure, but San Diego only has so much financial wiggle room these days, especially if they are looking to make moves this offseason.

For some, that made giving Profar the qualifying offer a strong possibility as it would give him a significant pay bump (if he signed it) and would allow San Diego to keep him around for another year.

Well, the deadline to extend qualifying offers on Monday came and went and Profar did not receive one. Now that he is a free agent with no strings attached, the likelihood that he returns to the Padres has taken a significant hit.

How is Jurickson Profar's free agency affected after Padres' qualifying offer decision?

Had the Padres given Profar the qualifying offer before Monday's deadline, the likelihood of him signing it would've felt high. However, it also had the potential to sour the team's relationship with Profar by forcing limits on his potential market for what is probably going to be one of his last chances to get paid. There were certainly pros and cons to the decision and San Diego obviously decided not to make the move.

In terms of what this means for a future potential deal with Profar and the Padres, that is somewhat difficult to parse. No qualifying offer getting signed would likely mean that Profar's annual payroll number would be lower for 2025 as he has been generally predicted to get somewhere in the realm of $16 million a year. However, the Padres and Profar failed to come to terms on a new contract during the exclusive negotiating window already. The likelihood that they will be able to close any gaps in negotiations now that the whole league is available to Profar feels awfully tough.

What Padres fans have to hope for is that Profar does his due diligence and doesn't find a situation to his liking and San Diego doesn't completely tap themselves out before the two sides inevitably circle back to each other. Profar's track record, age, and knee issues are real hurdles to overcome, but hope remains as long as both sides actually want to keep their successful partnership going.

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