Padres need to wreck Brewers’ Game 5 safety net before Jacob Misiorowski returns

The San Diego Padres did their job on Tuesday night, securing a season-saving victory against the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the NLDS. It came at a high cost -- Michael King had to get a heroic six-out save sans Mason Miller -- but what matters is that the Friars are still playing baseball, needing just two wins to advance to the NLCS for the first time since 2022.

Heading into Game 4, survival remains the operative word since elimination is still on the table if the Padres fall flat at home for the first time this October. However, the goals of the team should be go beyond just making it back to Milwaukee, since doing so will set up a sudden death showdown with NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski.

Even after knocking him out of Game 1 after just four innings, that's still not a matchup that favors San Diego (especially if King is still out of commission by then). As such, it would behoove the Padres to force Pat Murphy to dig into his bullpen early and often in Game 4, in an effort to give themselves the best possible odds to win a prospective Game 5.

Padres' fate in NLDS will be decided by their ability to assault Brewers' bullpen in Game 4

Thanks to the structure of the NLDS -- which features two days off for travel in a five-game series -- it's hard to completely exhaust an opponent's bullpen. Even the Padres' unit, which has featured Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui in all three games thus far, shouldn't have a ton of trouble piecing together outs with Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon expected back for Game 4.

Still, the prospect of facing "The Miz" with a fully loaded and well-rested bullpen behind him while on the road is as intimidating as it sounds. At least if the Brewers' relief reserves are depleted, the Padres can get a few cracks at facing Misiorowski before Muprhy is able to get to his high-leverage weapons.

Thus far in the series, the Brewers have used all of their best relievers (Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, and DL Hall) multiple times, though they've rarely had to work hard in those outings. Only four of their 13 combined appearances have lasted longer than 20 pitches, compared to six of the Padres' 11 relief appearances requiring at least that many pitches.

It's no secret that the Friars' bullpen was going to have to work hard to win this series, but we've already seen that plan succumb to the weight of the chaos the Brewers create in Games 1 and 2. If the Padres can't return the favor tonight by wearing down Milwaukee's relief corps, there might not be much of a fight they can put up in Game 5... if it gets played at all.

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