Padres miss on Tatsuya Imai as Astros pull off a surprise win

For a few weeks there, the San Diego Padres being in the mix for Tatsuya Imai felt almost too on-brand to ignore. A.J. Preller chasing upside, velocity, and a rotation solution that doesn’t require a five-year commitment — while also giving San Diego another legitimate way to stare down the Dodgers without blinking.

And then Houston walked in and snatched the whole thing.

Jon Heyman was first to report that Imai is heading to the Astros, and that initial surprise quickly turned into reality as the confirmations piled up. Jeff Passan followed with ESPN’s report that Imai and Houston are in agreement. And Chandler Rome (The Athletic) dropped the contract details that make this feel even more like a slick Astros heist: a three-year deal that can max out at $63 million, with opt-outs after every season. 

Padres lose out on Tatsuya Imai as Houston pulls off an offseason twist

From the Padres’ angle, that structure is the dagger. Opt-outs after every year is basically the ultimate “prove it in MLB, then re-cash in” setup — exactly the kind of player-friendly design you’d think San Diego could sell when they’re trying to build a contender without locking themselves into long, risky pitching deals.

It was no coincidence that Imai made sense for the Padres. As early as this summer, reports indicated that Preller was scouting Imai (as well as some other Japanese stars) while in Japan and those rumors likely fed the hype that occurred after the posting window opened.

Imai also brings real ace-ish traits. He went 10-5 with a 1.92 ERA last season for Seibu, punching out 178 batters in 163 2/3 innings. He was also working against the clock, with MLB noting his negotiating window was set to end Jan. 2 at 5 p.m. ET — sign or head back to Japan. 

Missing on Imai doesn’t end the Padres’ offseason, but it does tighten the margin. This was the kind of move that could’ve stabilized the rotation conversation.

If you’re San Diego, the pivot is simple (even if it’s not easy): keep shopping for impact arms, keep hunting value, and accept that the Astros just stole one of the cleaner “fits” on the board.