Padres-Mets mock trade ignores the risk of acquiring Freddy Peralta

In a loaded National League picture, the San Diego Padres are truly on the precipice of the unknown. A winning streak prior to the trade deadline could give the front office all the justification it needs to swing a blockbuster, while a string of losses may push them into the territory of sellers.

That said, barring a complete and total collapse, it's difficult to imagine A.J. Preller outright punting on playoff contention. He knows his core is old and getting worse by the year; opportunities to make noise in October will be harder to come by in ensuing seasons. Even if he does move a few players for future assets, it wouldn't be a shock if he snuck in a buy-side move prior to the deadline.

If he is limited in his pursuits, expect Preller to make a charge at a starting pitcher. The rotation is in disarray these days, practically relying on Michael King to carry the burden of five pitchers. Adding someone, anyone to help lighten his load could immensely improve this team's playoff chances.

The real question is: What price should the Padres be willing to pay for such reinforcements?

Freddy Peralta connection must make Padres evaluate what their top prospects are actually worth

Unsurprisingly, the Friars were connected to Freddy Peralta (again), this time by Jim Bowden of The Athletic. On the surface, the idea makes sense: He's a two-time All-Star with plenty of postseason experience, and his expiring contract and the New York Mets' struggles will make him readily available at the trade deadline.

The problem is that Bowden's proposed Padres trade for Peralta is a one-for-one swap featuring Futures Game selection Kash Mayfield. The 2024 first-round pick is one of few prospects in the organization worth a second glance, recording a 3.20 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate in High-A this year after dominating Low-A in his pro debut.

He's pretty clearly the second-best prospect in the system (behind Ethan Salas) and the best pitching prospect the Padres have, making him incredibly valuable to the team's present (as a trade chip) and future (as an eventual call-up). Is Peralta really the guy worth sacrificing that for?

His reputation may suggest so, but in his first year outside of the Brewers' pitching lab, five-and-dive Freddy just hasn't been the same. His ERA (5.01) and FIP (4.51) are at career-worst levels over a full season, and his inability to go deep in games -- he's averaging just 5.2 innings per start -- wouldn't alleviate the biggest weakness in the Padres' rotation.

If Mayfield is on the table, Preller has to aim higher than a 30-year-old rental in the midst of an existential crisis on the mound. The Padres simply can't afford to give more top prospects away without drastically increasing their championship odds.

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