Padres may have mistaken Walker Buehler's hot streak for a breakthrough

There's nothing wrong with fans buying back into a player. Sometimes, adversity makes those athletes stronger, giving fans something to hope for. San Diego Padres starter Walker Buehler had fans thinking just that after an unbelievable June in five starts.

But then, Buehler came back to earth. Hard. In three July outings, Buehler has not only erased his sparkling June, but has fans beginning to worry if the soon-to-be 32-year-old struck gold one last time before reverting back to his regularly-scheduled decline.

We may have seen the last great stretch of Walker Buehler's career

In five June outings, Buehler had 27 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. To think about how good of a month that was for Buehler, the last time he had a season with a K/9 above 9.0 was 2021. But it wasn't just the strikeouts during this span. He had a 1.71 ERA, marking his best month since August 2021 (minimum five starts). He even held his former Dodgers to one run in 5.1 frames on June 26. Things were looking surprisingly great for Buehler, but the turn of the month saw him take a turn for the worse.

He's allowed 20 runs in 11 innings this month with an 11/9 K/BB, plus an intentional walk. Padres fans are wondering: What happened?

Well, we're talking about a guy who has undergone two Tommy John surgeries. We're talking about a guy who had significant shoulder and hip problems within the last two years. So at some point, for a pitcher north of 30 years old, those aches and pains are going to catch up with you. And that's not to say that Buehler is hurting. It's about how the stockpile of injuries has changed him as a pitcher. For a brief month, we were able to see Buehler evade those demons, which might have given Friars fans a false sense of hope. That's understandable.

But, he is still well-below average in every pitching metric. Opponents are hitting .393 off his fastball this season, which is his second-most used pitch. Reminder, Buehler's fastball was what made him so great in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Sadly, it's just not there anymore. Padres fans should celebrate Buehler's strong June, but move on from it. Celebrate what was potentially the last dominant month of his career, meaning that the bar should be low for his expectations for the rest of the year.

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