Padres may already have their answer on this long-time prospect’s fading MLB future

Tirso Ornleas has long been one of the biggest what-ifs in the San Diego Padres' organization. A 6'3" slugger with plus power, hope was high that he'd eventually become one the team's fixtures on the outfield grass alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Unfortunately, that reality has yet to come to pass. He managed just one hit in his cup-of-coffee debut in San Diego last year, and his stock fell so far that the team designated him for assignment when they signed Griffin Canning over the offseason.

He miraculously made it through waivers, meaning the Friars were able to hold onto Ornelas. Optimists believed that the DFA would be the wake-up call he needed to get back to his top prospect roots. And yet, he's struggling badly this season, slashing .220/.255/.360 (65 wRC+) through 14 games.

And here's the kicker: He's doing all of that in Double-A.

While that means I don't have any Statcast data to analyze for you, it's also a damning indictment of Ornelas' future. A 26-year-old who has been in Triple-A for the past three years should not be struggling this much at the level below, even in a small sample.

Unless a rapid-fire turnaround is on the horizon, it feels like we may nearing the end of his career in the Padres' organization.

Tirso Ornelas is facing the toughest adversity of his Padres tenure

There's been some fear in recent seasons that Ornelas was destined to be one of those fabled "Quad-A" players; the ones who routinely crush Triple-A pitching but just can't get over the big-league hump.

Right now, he doesn't even look like that caliber of prospect. He spent half of 2023, all of 2024, and a majority of 2025 in El Paso. He graduated from Double-A three years ago. He shouldn't be striking out 21.8% of the time at a level he was supposed to have mastered long ago.

Maybe the Padres' lack of faith has caught up to Ornelas. The DFA was obviously the big blow, but he was also reassigned to minor-league camp roughly halfway through spring training. There was never any serious consideration of him making the Opening Day roster.

That he's somehow still the 25th-ranked prospect in the Padres' farm system is a larger problem unto itself. His potential shines in an organization that has traded away nearly every notable prospect in recent years, but it's starting to look more and more like his seven-game MLB debut in 2025 is the only time he'll ever see in San Diego.

Because he's no longer on the 40-man roster, there's no reason to cut him loose right now. Let Ornelas keep hacking away, and maybe he'll heat up as the weather gets warmer. But for anyone still holding out hope that he'll be the middle-of-the-order slugger we were once promised... it's probably best to start letting go.

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