Padres letting Michael King test free agency might be a blessing in disguise

The San Diego Padres came into the offseason knowing they’d have tough decisions to make on the pitching side, but Michael King taking those decisions out of their hands might be the most unexpected gift of all. 

King declining San Diego’s $22.025 million qualifying offer doesn’t register as a win at first glance. But with the organization juggling a tight payroll, a bruised rotation, and a far deeper injury history than King’s reputation suggests, his departure could actually make things easier rather than harder.

Michael King’s free agency gamble might actually help the Padres’ rotation plan

The Padres need reliability right now, not another gamble. And as electrifying as King can be when he’s rolling, the 2025 season made it painfully clear that banking on 30 starts a year from him may be wishful thinking. That reality, paired with the escalating cost of mid-rotation pitching on the open market, made the Padres’ qualifying offer a reasonable but risky play. King betting on himself — and walking away — might spare San Diego from the wrong kind of long-term commitment.

Nobody questions the talent. When King took the mound healthy, he was an ace-level talent capable of carrying a rotation. But his 2025 season was defined more by setbacks than production, and each one raised more questions about his durability moving forward.

Ultimately King finished the season with just 15 starts with a 3.44 ERA. His health alone makes his market difficult to predict, but the industry seems to be betting on upside.

Most projections have King landing a three-year deal in the $69–75 million range, roughly $23 million per year. One model sees a shorter two-year, $56 million deal for a pitcher trying to re-establish durability.

Either version carries real risk. The Padres’ rotation is battered enough without adding another health gamble. King could absolutely rebound elsewhere and pitch like the guy the Padres hoped they’d be building around. But unless the price dramatically shifts, San Diego may be better off reallocating those dollars toward a sturdier, more predictable arm who can take the ball every five days.

King declining the QO doesn’t fix the Padres’ rotation problems. But it does give them clarity — and perhaps a cleaner path to the kind of pitching stability they desperately need.