Padres’ interest in Shota Imanaga comes with a flaw Ruben Niebla would have to work around

Petco Park can actually help Shota Imanaga with a few things. That’s probably the easiest place to land on the Padres’ interest in the free-agent lefty. Dennis Lin of The Athletic linked San Diego to Imanaga, and besides their obvious need for a stater, we can see why they would want him. He finished the 2026 season with 174 1/3 innings and a 3.77 ERA for the Cubs. The Padres have multiple spots to fill in their rotation, so there’s value in a guy who can take the ball as often as Imanaga can.There’s also a reason to consult with Ruben Niebla before A.J. Preller gets too far in talking money. 

Imanaga gave up 35 home runs last season. He gave up 31 the year before in about 30 fewer innings, so his home run rate actually came down a little in 2026. It still sat at 1.81 per nine innings. The guy can throw strikes. He’ll miss bats and spend a lot of time watching baseballs in the air. We’d gladly take the first two things. The third is going to follow him wherever he goes.

Ruben Niebla has to give Imanaga a plan that travels

The first thing we’d want Niebla to look at is how Imanaga gets to his fastball. He works upstairs with a four-seamer that averaged 91.4 mph in 2026. There’s a reason to keep it above the barrel. When he leaves a low velocity fastball a little lower, that same pitch can easily end up in the seats. Petco might buy him an out at the warning track. But only a couple as both Petco and Wrigley field can be a bit friendly to the longball.

Hitters batted .195 against Imanaga’s splitter last season, and he threw it 34.5 percent of the time. We’d keep leaning on it. We’d also like to see Ruben Niebla give him more options than a 91 mph four-seamer he threw about 40 percent of the time. Between those two pitches, hitters knew what they were likely to see on roughly three out of every four deliveries.

Also, the trend after his first time through the order is nothing to sneeze at. Imanaga went from a 2.52 ERA through the first three innings to a 5.11 ERA from the fourth on. Hitters slugged .533 against him in the fourth alone, and he gave up 15 homers across the fourth and fifth. That’s where we’d want Niebla looking at which pitches Imanaga could trust when he needed a strike. If he can get more consistent with his sweeper, sinker, curveball or slider, he’ll have another way through the middle of the order when hitters have already seen him.

We’d pursue Imanaga at a price that reflects the pitcher he’s been. There’s plenty to like about a lefty who can give 170 innings and make hitters earn their way on base. If Niebla sees a way to get him through the order multiple times without too much trouble, we can get behind the signing.

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