Padres’ impending Jurickson Profar contract decision isn’t as simple as it looks

Along with the decision to promote Jackson Merrill and have him play in the outfield, arguably the most consequential decision the San Diego Padres have made on offense this season was to go out and bring back Jurickson Profar for 2024. While the Padres always thought that Profar could contribute for them this season from the beginning, few thought he would be as good as he has been.

Across 668 plate appearances during the 2024 regular season, Profar has slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers and 85 RBI. For those keeping track at home, his .839 OPS is the best of his career by over 40 points. His performance this year earned Profar an enemy in the Dodgers as well as a much-deserved first All-Star appearance.

With Profar's breakout firmly on fans' minds, many have called upon the Padres to ink him to a long-term deal. As good as Profar has been for San Diego this season, figuring out exactly what such a contract with Profar would even look like is easier said than done.

A new Jurickson Profar contract must be handled carefully by the Padres

If we were looking only at Profar's numbers this season, giving him a lucrative multi-year deal to come back for 2025 and beyond would be a no-brainer. Other than a bit of a swoon in August, Profar has been among the Padres' best hitters all season long. The two sides clearly like each other a lot and a reunion feels more likely than not.

However, San Diego shouldn't let sentimentality and a one-year sample color their decision-making too much. In addition to the fact that they already have a lot of very expensive contracts on the books going forward, Profar is far from a sure thing. From 2013-2023, Profar averaged a .706 OPS and his hit tool has been a bit all over the place throughout his career.

More importantly, Profar's age and health must be kept in mind. He will be 32 years old when the 2025 season begins and Profar has been dealing with a chronic knee issue off and on all season long. Profar finished the regular season strong with an .818 OPS in September, which helps his cause, but thinking this level of production out of him will last for years, especially with his knee issues, is a very questionable bet to make.

One thing is abundantly clear: Profar is going to get a big raise over the $1 million one-year deal he got from the Padres for 2024. San Diego is going to want him back and he clearly fits with the vibe of this team. Perhaps a two year, $28 million deal with a team option for a third year would make sense for both sides as Profar would get some financial security and San Diego wouldn't be on the hook for too long if things go sideways. A lengthier deal or more money than that feels very questionable, however, as Profar's track record, combined with the current the stage of his career, probably wouldn't justify that sort of commitment.

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