Padres have run out of creative ways to hide Matt Waldron's biggest flaw

The plan was both clever and borrowed, but that doesn’t mean it was wrong. Just a few days after it worked brilliantly against the Giants, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen’s plan to use an opener ahead of Matt Waldron blew up in everyone’s face. The idea was that Bradgley Rodriguez would take the first inning, while Waldron would come in after and pitch as long as the game allowed. 

The idea of an opener is now nearly a decade old, so it's no secret. It’s to hide the starter from the top of the order the first time and, with Waldron, let the knuckleball do its work against the bottom more often than he sees the top. 

The first inning went as planned with Bradgley Rodriguez getting the Brewers 1-2-3 on a groundout, a lineout, and a strikeout. It even worked in the second for Waldron, who walked the leadoff man, but coaxed a double play and then struck out Garrett Mitchell. But with two outs in the third, he gave up a home run to Joey Ortiz, which is probably finable in kangaroo court, given that it was his first of the year. 

The fourth is when things really unraveled. Waldron gave up a double, a walk, a single, another single, a sacrifice fly and, ultimately, a two-run double before allowing a single and being put out of his misery and was pulled from the game. He now has a 9.28 ERA in 21.1 innings. He’s only pitched well in one of his five games, and there’s more to the story than just a knuckleball that doesn’t knuckle right.

Waldron’s issues go deeper than just his main pitch, the knuckler, not working

Waldron was always an interesting story. Most pitchers who adopt a knuckleball make it their primary, and often only, pitch. But Waldron threw it 26.7 percent of the time in 2023, 38.2 percent in 2024, and has now thrown it 28.2 percent of the time in 2026. He threw it about 80 percent of the time last year, but also only made one appearance. What that means is that it’s not the only thing at which to point the finger. No, the knuckleball hasn’t worked. Opponents are hitting .345 against it with a .655 SLG, but not throwing it as much might be a problem. 

A big part of what makes a knuckleball work is that it throws off timing in a big way, which means sequencing is so important. It allows a 92 MPH four-seamer or sinker to play up. Or a cutter to look unhittable with its sharp movement. Or a sweeper to look unhittable. But when the knuckleball usage is so low, the other pitches have to be better because a hitter can look to the other four and adjust when the floater comes in, which is what Ortiz did. 

Now, the underlying numbers aren’t actually terrible for Waldron. His .440 wOBA against him is one of the worst in the league, but his .313 xwOBA is fine. His hard-hit rate allowed isn’t bad. His average exit velocity isn’t terrible. His barrel rate is fine. His xERA of 3.89 does tell a much more promising story than the results. But those underlying numbers can be very deceiving for a pitcher who is essentially unlike any other in baseball. With hitters able to sit elsewhere and adjust, it stands to reason that the expected statistics may not tell as much of the story as they do for others.

Lucas Giolito is in San Antonio waiting

After the game, Stammen didn’t want to talk about a demotion. He mentioned that Waldron is part of the roster and that one bad outing doesn’t change anything. But the reality is that it’s been more than one bad outing. In fact, it’s only been one good outing out of five. Waldron isn’t the only one who sees what could be coming. He’s mentioned his lack of options. If Lucas Giolito is ready to go, it might stand to reason that Waldron could be DFA’d sooner than later. 

There’s a version of the story where the knuckler stabilizes, the cutter starts to run away from righties, and Waldron gets back to the stretch he had in 2024 when he was so good for nine or 10 starts. That version of him does exist. And knuckleballers have been known to find it overnight. 

But the Padres have been patient and have tried many different things with Waldron. Like the pitcher himself, they might be out of options pretty soon, which will be a disappointing end to an interesting chapter for both Waldron and the team.

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