Padres have 16 games left and a playoff magic number that offers no comfort

Magic numbers are supposed to take some anxiety off the final month of the baseball season. However, the Padres’ number is a bit scary. As of September 11, San Diego’s playoff magic number sits at 17. The Padres have 16 games remaining. They are 78-68 and occupy the final NL Wild Card spot by half a game over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

A half-game lead barely qualifies as one. Basically, the Padres have the seat today because Arizona has not taken it yet. One bad night can change the equation. Two can change the mood entirely.

The countdown also belongs partly to Arizona. Padres wins will lower the number. Losses by the teams chasing them will do the same. San Diego needs to control the narrative by handling their business, though every Diamondbacks result will keep the conversation active.

There is nothing comfortable about needing the scoreboard to cooperate. The Padres have won four consecutive games, and that deserves credit. The streak pushed them onto the correct side of the postseason line.  

Padres need breathing room before Arizona reaches Petco Park

Ten of their final 16 games will be played away from Petco Park. That says a lot for a team who is 46-29 at home and 32-39 on the road. The Padres open the stretch with three games in San Francisco and four at Coors Field. They return home for three against Miami, visit the division-leading Dodgers and then close the regular season with Arizona at Petco Park.

That Dodgers trip deserves a circle in permanent marker. While San Diego spends three games in Los Angeles, Arizona will be playing the last-place Rockies. A half-game advantage can disappear quickly during a schedule mismatch like that.

The Padres and Diamondbacks have split their first 10 meetings. Their final three games will decide the season series and the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’ve yet to secure a postseason tiebreaker against any tracked contender. The Padres already lose that comparison with the Phillies, Cubs and Cardinals. Arizona remains undecided. So do Miami and Pittsburgh.

Waiting for the Arizona finale would amount to leaving the season balanced on three games. Maybe that ending would make for great television. It would also make for an anxiety filled, miserable baseball series for everyone in San Diego.

We can keep calling 17 a magic number. The more useful number is zero, the number of remaining games the Padres can afford to treat like ordinary baseball down the stretch.

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