The San Diego Padres should be one of the hottest tickets on the West Coast right now. The roster is filled with stars on both sides of the ball, the Padres were among the best teams in baseball last season, and they play an incredible brand of baseball that's fun to watch. Unfortunately, the Los Angeles Dodgers are just up the road a ways and in the same division which has created both a fun and heated rivalry, as well as a number of headaches for the Padres.
For San Diego, LA's ability to leverage their notoriety as well as their seemingly endless money pit has created a unique amount of pressure and competition, especially when it comes to gaining marketshare with coveted Japanese free agents. That reason alone is why most experts still believe that the Dodgers are the favorite to land Roki Sasaki even though there is some growing optimism surrounding the Padres' chances.
That same advantage the Dodgers seem to hold in bidding for top talent is likely to factor into Munetaka Murakami's market next offseason when he is expected to be posted.
Dodgers will remain the favorite to sign Munetaka Murakami next offseason until the Padres prove otherwise
While Murakami isn't currently considered to be a bona fide MLB star to-be, his résumé in Japan is impressive with a career .945 OPS. The last couple of seasons haven't lived up to his lofty standards, but he still averaged 32 home runs in 2023 and 2024.
Aside from the marketing advantages the Dodgers have over the Padres, another problem is Murakami (unlike Sasaki) is being posted as a regular free agent, meaning teams won't be limited by international bonus pool rules. A Japanese free agent with mass market appeal who is looking to get paid? It is hard not to like the Dodgers' chances especially given their successful pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
For the Padres, they are going to have to change a couple narratives if they want to be a factor when Murakami becomes available. The Friars have yet to demonstrate the ability to attract top talent from Japan, which could come to frutition if San Diego can actually land Sasaki this offseason. A.J. Preller is also going to have to be both willing and able to hang in the bidding directly with the Dodgers; which is easier said than done.
Next offseason is a long ways away right now and the Padres can only control so much. However, if they can prove that they are looking to at least keep pace with LA going forward and be a marketable alternative to the Dodgers in 2025, there is a chance they could land Murakami if they want him. If they can't, they may not even get the opportunity to make the choice at all.