Padres fans may not be ready for what the projection models think of this starter

Nick Pivetta was a pleasant surprise for the Padres in 2025, as he saw an increased role despite being signed as a pitcher to bolster the back-end of the rotation.

However, with an injury to Michael King coupled with a down year for Dylan Cease, Pivetta became the team’s ace. He reflected that by posting excellent numbers, posting a 2.87 ERA over 181.2 innings, while recording 190 strikeouts.

A season like this seems so hard to trump, but there are reasons to believe that Pivetta will follow up his excellent 2025 campaign with an encore. MLB.com’s David Adler has the 32-year-old Canadian-born pitcher written down for another excellent season ahead.

Nick Pivetta’s 2026 outlook is the kind that makes Padres plans feel bolder

Adler projects Pivetta to throw 183.2 innings over 31 starts, but most importantly, has him eclipsing 200 strikeouts on the season.

Adler wrote that only ten pitchers were projected to hit the mark of 200 strikeouts, saying that most of them are perennial aces, but Pivetta will be joining them this season.

The Padres will need Pivetta to play well, considering the outlook of the starting rotation, which is set to enter a transition year with all the changes the unit endured over the offseason.

The rotation will consist of Pivetta, along with a healthy Michael King and Joe Musgrove. The four and five spots in the starting unit are still to be determined, but it is likely that it is figured out soon.

Realistically, the Padres starters only need to go five to six innings per game before turning it over to the league’s best bullpen. Consisting of Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Mason Miller, this provides a lot of support to what will be a weak rotation in 2026.

What can Pivetta do to complement the bullpen? Play his tail off and consistently go seven innings. It is safe to say that people believe he can.