Padres fans can't believe Luis Arraez's bizarre free agent saga

There are “slow markets,” and then there’s whatever is happening with Luis Arraez right now.

We’re sitting here in late January and a three-time batting champ — a guy who just led the National League in hits — is still out there… with barely a whisper attached to his name. Arraez piled up 181 hits in 2025. Even in a “down year.”

But still, crickets. Even MLB.com is basically framing it like a philosophical question — “does any team want a three-time batting champ?” — while noting there’s been very little buzz and that a return to San Diego is still on the table because the Padres still have a need at first base. 

Luis Arraez’s free agency has turned into a confusing Padres offseason subplot

Why does this feel so upside down? Because Arraez is the rare player who makes baseball look simple in a sport that’s obsessed with making everything harder. He doesn’t strike out much, he sprays the ball, and in Petco Park, that skill reads like oxygen.

But the league isn’t paying for that. It’s paying for impact. And the deeper you go, the more you can see why front offices are hesitating. Statcast paints a pretty blunt picture from 2025: 86.1 mph average exit velo, 16.7 percent hard-hit rate, and a 1.1 percent barrel rate. That’s not exactly the profile teams dream on when they’re cutting seven-figure checks. 

Even his traditional line came with a giant disclaimer by his standards: .292 average with a .719 OPS and 8 homers. That batting average would make plenty of hitters jealous — but for Arraez, it’s literally his career low, and it invites the scary question if this is the start of the slide?

San Diego is living in the world of “we need pitching and flexibility” while trying to keep the lineup functional. If Arraez’s market keeps dragging, this could turn into one of those weird late-offseason reunions where the Padres get him on a shorter deal than anyone expected — because the rest of the league decided a one-tool elite contact bat is a luxury, not a cornerstone.

And honestly? Padres fans might hate the waiting, but the longer this gets uncomfortable for Arraez, the more it starts to look like an opportunity for San Diego to steal back a very specific kind of offense the sport keeps pretending it doesn’t need.