Padres failed pursuit of Nolan Arenado quietly reveals troubling misstep

The most frustrating part of the San Diego Padres’ failed Nolan Arenado pursuit isn’t that it happened. It’s why it happened.

According to Ken Rosenthal, San Diego was essentially the runner-up to Arizona in the Arenado sweepstakes, with the plan being simple: keep Manny Machado locked in at third base, slide Arenado to first, and let the roster breathe again. The snag? The Padres didn’t want to take on as much of Arenado’s salary as the Diamondbacks did. 

However, it’s not like Arizona dove off the deep end. In the deal that got it done, the Cardinals agreed to cover $31 million of the $42 million remaining over the next two years, with St. Louis getting pitching prospect Jack Martinez in return. 

Padres’ quiet Nolan Arenado miss reveals a troubling new pattern

So the Padres — an organization that’s spent the last several years loudly announcing it’s here to win — apparently blinked at a short-term bill that wasn’t even close to full price.

That’s the issue. Not missing out on Arenado specifically. But the message it sends about how the Padres are operating right now. This is a team that no longer wants to get too uncomfortable. Comfort is the last thing a serious contender should be chasing in January.

Sure, Arenado is 34. The bat definitely dipped in 2025 (.237/.289/.377, 12 HR, 52 RBIs). The numbers were ugly by his standards while a shoulder injury cost him significant time. 

But this would have been a gamble for two seasons. A clear roster fit at a position the Padres are trying to fill. Instead, a rival in the NL West has upgraded in a way that makes your path harder.

The Diamondbacks found a way to buy low on a historically elite defender, at a time when the NL is basically a street fight every night. The Padres were close enough to see the finish line, but unwilling to pay what looks like a relatively manageable toll. 

If the Padres’ stance is “we can’t do that kind of money,” they need to say it with their chest and reset expectations. But if you’re still selling “championship window” baseball, you don’t get to flinch on a two-year move that addresses an obvious need and blocks a division opponent in one swing.

The Padres may have just quietly told on themselves.