Padres face risky Nick Pivetta decision with 2027 rotation already unsettled

A.J. Preller can call Nick Pivetta another piece of the Padres’ offseason puzzle. But to be honest, he simply just needs to be in the picture. And that’s not us saying that San Diego should blindly accept the risk attached to his contract. In 2026, he missed more than 130 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow, and the Padres cannot pretend a strong finish wiped that medical history clean. The best case scenario here may be to explore a reworked agreement that offers the club more protection.

But walking away entirely? That would possibly create a much larger problem.

The Padres hold a club option for 2027, and Pivetta has two years and $32 million remaining on his deal. Picking up the option would also preserve his $18 million player option for 2028. According to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, renegotiating the contract is one possibility as San Diego tries to limit its exposure without losing the pitcher.

That’s the best route if Pivetta is willing to cooperate. Give him additional certainty, build in protection for the Padres and stop short of creating another hole in a rotation that already has plenty of question marks heading into winter.

Declining Pivetta’s option would create another problem for the Padres

Yu Darvish hasn’t decided whether he will attempt a comeback at age 40 after missing the entire 2026 season. He’s throwing bullpens, but being physically capable of exploring a return is not the same as committing to one.

Joe Musgrove made it back for October and delivered three scoreless relief innings. That was a legitimate victory after Tommy John. But we don’t know enough about him becoming a 30-start pitcher again in 2027. The Padres simply don’t have enough dependable innings to casually discard Pivetta.

Preller said the organization hopes Pivetta will remain “part of that puzzle.” At some point, though, the Padres have to realize every starter they lose creates another job for Preller to fill, usually through an expensive free-agent market or a trade involving talent the farm system can scarcely afford to surrender.

Pivetta’s elbow is undoubtedly a risk. The alternative is not safety, either. It’s another open rotation spot that they’d potentially fill with someone they don’t even know as well.

A renegotiated contract is San Diego’s smartest play

The Padres should first pursue a revised deal that changes the risk calculation without insulting Pivetta’s value. Maybe that means adjusting the guarantees, changing the option structure or adding incentives tied to availability. The exact mechanism is less important than the objective.

If the two sides can’t reach that compromise, picking up the club option still makes more sense than creating a vacancy for the privilege of shopping for Pivetta’s replacement. Still, there’s no spotless choice. The Padres need to decide which risk they can manage.

Pivetta comes with a medical concern and an awkward contract. Letting him go would leave San Diego with fewer innings, less certainty and another urgent offseason expense.

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