Padres could turn Michael King, Dylan Cease exits into long-term roster haul

San Diego Padres fans knew this day was coming, but that doesn’t make it any less jarring. Two of the most coveted arms on the winter market — Dylan Cease and Michael King — are walking out of San Diego at the exact moment the rest of the league is lining up to throw money at pitching. The Cubs and Orioles have already been floated as interested suitors, the kind of aggressive, pitching-hungry contenders who were always going to treat Cease and King as headline additions rather than tough budget decisions.

From a Padres perspective, though, this was never going to be a fair fight. Once both right-handers were extended qualifying offers, the outcome was basically scripted. San Diego wasn’t going to outbid deep-pocketed teams that can live with risk on the back end of a long deal. What they can do, however, is squeeze every ounce of value out of losing them — and that’s where the “long-term roster haul” comes in.

The Padres might quietly win after losing Michael King and Dylan Cease

As expected, Cease and King both declined the qualifying offers the Padres issued on Nov. 6, turning down a guaranteed $22.025 million salary for 2026 in favor of multi-year paydays. Cease is projected to land something in the $25–30 million AAV range, while industry estimates have King in the $20–23 million neighborhood on a multi-year pact. Those are real numbers, and they’re exactly the kind of commitments San Diego has to be selective about after the last few years of payroll gymnastics.

The short-term headline is simple: the Padres just lost two high-end starters. The longer view is a little more interesting. Because both pitchers rejected their QOs and are expected to sign elsewhere, San Diego is now in line for two extra selections in next summer’s draft — picks that will slot immediately between the fourth and fifth rounds. That’s not franchise-changing capital on its own, but two extra swings at upside in a draft can absolutely tilt a farm system if you scout and develop well enough. For a team that has to reload on the fly, that matters.

Cease is the classic “bet on stuff” free agent. On the surface, 2025 doesn’t exactly scream payday — a 4.55 ERA over 165 innings is one of the rougher lines of Dylan Cease’s career. But scratch past that and you see why teams like the Cubs are already poking around. Since 2021, nobody in baseball has taken the ball to start more often, and he’s the only pitcher in the game to post 200-plus strikeouts in each of the last five seasons. Throw in top-four Cy Young finishes in both leagues (2022 in the AL, 2024 in the NL), and it’s pretty obvious he was always going to pitch his way out of the Padres’ price range the moment he sniffed true free agency.

King is a different kind of roll of the dice. He made only 15 starts in 2025 thanks to a nerve issue near his shoulder and a knee problem, and that’s the kind of medical file that gives any front office a little pause. But when he’s actually taken the ball the past two seasons, he’s been borderline top-of-the-rotation good.

An analytically driven club like the Orioles kicking the tires on that profile isn’t surprising at all — which again makes it that much harder for the Padres to hang in a bidding war.

So yes, the Padres are losing two impact arms, and yes, it puts enormous pressure on A.J. Preller to rebuild a rotation that just lost a huge chunk of its ceiling. But if you’re going to watch Michael King and Dylan Cease chase big contracts elsewhere, this is the way to do it: collect the draft compensation, lean into your scouting advantage, and turn those extra selections into the next wave of cheap, controllable pitching. 

San Diego doesn’t get style points for “winning” the QO game. They’ll be judged on what they do with those picks. If they hit on even one of them, this winter’s losses could quietly become a long-term win.