Padres could be dangerous if Jackson Merrill fixes two glaring red flags for 2026

San Diego Padres fans love Jackson Merrill, and why wouldn't they? The 22-year-old is already considered a star in Major League Baseball through two seasons. He's clutch. He's multi-tooled. He has impressive postseason numbers.

Though his production in two years has been vital to the Padres' success, there is still some more work to be done from Merrill. In order for him to completely break through in this league and be on par with other young outfield studs like Corbin Carroll, Merrill needs to improve in two areas. He needs to steal more bases and he needs to improve his walk rate.

Padres' Jackson Merrill should key in on two areas to increase his status as a superstar in MLB

Let's quickly get the good out of the way. Merrill's xSLG, LA Sweet-Spot%, and barrel % already makes him an elite hitter. He's going to be a candidate for 50-60 extra-base hits for the next decade. That part of his game is covered.

Merrill is also an unbelievable defensive outfielder. In 269 career games, Merrill already has 17 assists, which is backed by tremendous range and a top-tier arm.

Now, for the two areas of improvement. Merrill is already a fast runner, sitting in the 79th percentile in sprint speed. Unfortunately, that quickness has not translated into stolen bases, despite it being easier now more than ever to swipe a bag. He had 16 stolen bases in 2024, but that dipped way down to one single bag in 2025 across 115 games.

Yes, hamstring and ankle injuries inhibited him from sprinting more than he needed to, but Merrill still showed that he can run well. If he isn't as conservative on the bases in 2026, get ready for an easy 20-20 campaign.

At the plate, Merrill did see his walk rate jump a smidge from 4.9 as a rookie, to 6.8 as a sophomore. That still does not quite cut it in terms of on-base percentage. Merrill owns a .322 OBP in two seasons, which is a bit disappointing, considering how great he has been in every other metric.

Merrill does swing and miss a lot, so perhaps finding a way to cut down on that can translate into more walks for him. There were multiple instances in 2025 when Merrill would go a week (or longer) without drawing a walk. For a guy with a 120 career OPS+, it's telling that other aspects to his game are the reason he is considered a tremendous hitter. If he walks more, then we can comfortably say that Jackson Merrill can become a Top 10 hitter in the National League.