Padres cannot let Germán Márquez’s rehab mirage hide the real concern

The Padres should like what they are seeing from Germán Márquez. They just need to be sure not to get carried away by it. He’s currently in a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso that looks encouraging. His fastball has reportedly ticked up to around 95.4 mph, which is a bright sign for a dude coming off a forearm injury.

But the Padres should also know better than to treat a solid rehab line like a magic eraser.

Márquez is working his way back from right forearm nerve irritation, and his latest outing was a little more complicated than the surface-level win makes it look. He allowed three runs on five hits and three walks over five innings against Reno. He struck out three and threw 43 of his 73 pitches for strikes.

Germán Márquez’s Padres return still comes with a real command question

The rehab ERA is nice. But the Padres need to be careful. Besides the velocity bump, the part the Padres should be asking themselves is if Márquez can command the baseball well enough to get major-league hitters out?

Before the injury, Márquez wasn’t giving the Padres any stability. He had a 5.76 ERA across six starts and 29 2/3 innings. The stuff is just as erratic as it is on his current rehab assignment. The outings didn’t give the Padres the kind of answers they needed. And now, even with the rehab results trending in the right direction, the walks and strike percentage are still enough to keep the brakes on.

The good thing is the velo tells us the arm is alive. But we still don’t know if the command is fixed.

Padres should welcome Germán Márquez back without pretending the proof is already here

The Padres still need pitching options. Any team trying to stay serious through the summer should take a healthy Márquez over not having him at all. But there’s a line between feeling encouraged and feeling satisfied. And a team can talk themselves into trouble if they’re satisfied with this kind of production.

If his next outing comes with him still throwing 95, filling the zone and keeping hitters from sitting on him, then the Padres have something serious to consider. They may have another rotation piece returning at the time where they need one. 

But if the command is still wobbly, this cannot become another case of the Padres talking themselves into name value and experience because the alternative is too uncomfortable.

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