Padres can turn Diamondbacks Wild Card showdown into a victory lap

The Padres have already scheduled the party. All they need to do now is keep the Diamondbacks from crashing it. Their final regular-season series will bring Hispanic Heritage Weekend, mariachis, City Connect uniforms and a Los Tucanes de Tijuana concert to Petco Park from Sept. 25-27. That’s going to be a fantastic three days. It could feel considerably less festive if every pitch against Arizona carries the weight of an entire season.

The good news is that the Padres have finally created the space they need to prevent that.

Entering September 18, They’re 84-69 with a four-game lead over the Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Padres have won 10 of 11, Arizona has dropped two straight and what had been a 2 1/2 game cushion Tuesday morning has grown into a four-game lead. Now they need to make sure not to hand any of it back.

Why the Padres’ four-game NL Wild Card lead matters against the Diamondbacks

The Padres and Diamondbacks have split their first 10 meetings. That makes the final series more than a head-to-head fight for three wins. If San Diego begins that weekend three games ahead and Arizona sweeps, the clubs would finish tied. The D-backs would own an 8-5 head-to-head record and, in a two-team tie, the final playoff berth.

A four-game advantage changes everything. If the Padres carry their current lead into Sept. 25, Arizona can’t catch them during the series. Even a sweep would leave the Friars one game ahead.

Both clubs have six games before their meeting at Petco. San Diego hosts Miami before visiting the Dodgers. Arizona hosts the Yankees and then travels to Colorado. The Padres just need to match Arizona win for win and they’ll be fine. The elimination number between the two clubs is six, so any combination of six Padres wins and Diamondbacks losses removes Arizona from the equation before the finale begins.

Padres rebounded from Rockies loss to strengthen their NL Wild Card position

Tuesday’s 9-3 loss to Colorado looked like a squandered opportunity. The Cubs and Phillies had both lost, Arizona remained within striking distance and San Diego’s eight-game winning streak ended against a team at the bottom of the standings. They responded well. They beat Colorado 9-3 on Wednesday, with Ethan Salas becoming the youngest catcher in MLB history to hit two home runs in a game. They followed that with a 9-2 win Thursday, finishing a 6-1 road trip and taking three of four at Coors Field.

The Padres scored 29 runs and collected 52 hits during the Colorado series. Michael King supplied six strong innings in the finale and Xander Bogaerts finished a single shy of the cycle.

San Diego left Denver with a four-game Wild Card lead and moved within one game of both Chicago and Philadelphia. Because the Padres have lost the tiebreaker against each club, they must pass them outright to ensure a Wild Card Series has to come through San Diego.

That makes the next six games about more than holding off Arizona. The Padres can secure their postseason position while continuing to chase home-field advantage.

The upcoming Miami series isn’t a soft landing spot. The Marlins just took two of three in Arizona and helped build the cushion San Diego now enjoys. The Dodgers won’t be laying down either. They have clinched the NL West, but they are still chasing a first-round bye.

Nothing about this, or the Padres’ season has been automatic. It’s still a far better situation than the one they occupied two days ago. San Diego no longer needs to gain ground on Arizona before the final series. The Padres simply need to avoid losing it.

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