Padres can’t risk blockbuster trade for Twins’ Joe Ryan after latest health concern

It makes sense for Joe Ryan to continue getting connected to the Padres. If you put a controllable All-Star starter next to A.J. Preller during trade season, the rumors practically write themselves. Ryan would give them a legitimate arm for October. He currently owns a 3.38 ERA with 131 strikeouts across 114 1/3 innings, earns only $6.1 million this season and remains under club control through 2027. 

The problem is that Ryan’s right arm just introduced some uncertainty the Friars can’t afford to purchase at a premium.

The Twins scratched Ryan from his scheduled Sunday start against the Athletics because of what manager Derek Shelton called general arm fatigue. The decision came after Ryan surrendered a career-high six home runs and eight earned runs over four innings against the Guardians.

Minnesota hopes Ryan can return during its upcoming series against Kansas City. He threw a bullpen session Saturday, said the fatigue was subsiding and indicated there was no current reason to fear a significant injury. That’s all encouraging. But it may not be enough to justify a blockbuster.

Padres need reliable rotation help more than a risky Joe Ryan trade

There’s no diagnosed injury, arm fatigue is common and it doesn’t automatically mean something catastrophic is around the corner. The standard isn’t whether Ryan needs a stint on the IL. We’re just not sure the Padres should surrender what’s left of their trade capital for a pitcher whose most recent start was a disaster and whose arm now requires additional rest.

That answer should be easy. In AJ Cassavell's latest assessment of the Padres’ rotation, Michael King and Walker Buehler are the only two starters currently taking the ball every fifth day. The rest of the staff has become a nightly puzzle of bulk relievers, piggyback outings and matchup-driven decisions.

The rotation owns a 4.68 ERA, better than only the Rockies among NL clubs. Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito are still on the IL, while Pivetta and Musgrove aren’t expected back before the middle of August.

If the Padres are still thinking about being aggressive at the trade deadline, Ryan no longer provides the certainty they need.

Trading for him would require San Diego to pay for his All-Star résumé, affordable salary and additional year of control. The Twins have no reason to offer an injury discount. Ryan can help them contend in 2027, and it would be another major move in Minnesota’s sell-off.

In other words, the Padres would still be asked to pay the healthy ace price while accepting all the health-related risk. No thanks.

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