Padres can’t ignore what Orioles paid for Shane Baz if Nick Pivetta is really available

San Diego Padres fans should be slightly more optimistic after the Shane Baz trade — not that they’re any more likely to acquire a pitcher, however the trade gives AJ Preller a yardstick by which to measure offers for Nick Pivetta from other teams.

Baltimore went all-in on acquiring starting pitching when the Orioles traded four minor league prospects, including outfielders Slater De Brun and Austin Overn, catcher Caden Bodine and right-hander Michael Forret as well as a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (33rd overall), to Tampa Bay for Baz on December 19th.

A.J. Preller just got leverage thanks to the Orioles’ Baz splash

Here’s the part Padres fans should underline with a Sharpie: that haul was for Baz coming off a 4.87 ERA season. Yes, he’s 26. Yes, the stuff is real. Yes, there’s team control through 2028.  But the Orioles still paid like they were buying the idea of Baz — not the 2025 version of Baz.

Pan the camera to Pivetta. At 32, the age is important when discussing trades since teams like the idea of a younger timeline. The problem with this is you end up giving away dollars for pennies by only looking at one aspect of Pivetta's game. Pivetta did what was asked of him in 2025; he went 13–5 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 190 strikeouts in 181.2 innings. This is the type of "I'll take the ball every five days and stop the bleeding" that contenders pay top dollar for on the trading market in December and July. 

And contract-wise, Pivetta isn’t a pure rental. He’s on a four-year deal (through 2028) with opt-outs after 2026 and 2027. Opt-outs do complicate the return — a buying team knows they might only get one more year if Pivetta keeps pitching like an All-Star. But that also cuts the other way: if a team believes it’s close to a title, the pitch becomes, “You’re paying for a 2026 difference-maker… and if he stays longer, it’s gravy.”

Which brings us back to San Diego’s leverage.

If that is the going rate for Baz — a talented 26-year-old with a shakier 2025 résumé — then a proven 2025 ace-level season from Pivetta should absolutely raise the floor of what the Padres can demand. And it reframes the entire conversation for Preller: the Padres could choose to cash this chip in and basically rebuild the farm in one move, or they could ask for MLB-ready help now (first base, catching depth, bench bats, whatever the front office thinks keeps the 2026 roster from feeling like it’s held together with duct tape).

Either way, the Orioles just made one thing crystal clear: teams will pay like crazy for starting pitching — even when the pitcher isn’t coming off a pretty stat line. And Pivetta’s 2025 track record is a lot prettier than Baz’s. If he’s truly “available,” San Diego shouldn’t be shy about pricing him like it.