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Padres can’t coast after D-backs loss puts Wild Card home-field advantage at risk

One more win and the tiebreakers disappear.
ByTremayne Person
Sep 25, 2026; San Diego, California, USA;  San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) celebrates after scoring during the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park.  Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Sep 25, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) celebrates after scoring during the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Padres punched their postseason ticket on Thursday night. On Friday, they played as if the remaining schedule had become optional. To be fair, no one should be surprised. Some like to call it the hangover game. Whatever you want to call it, most teams come out flat the day after clinching a postseason berth.

Arizona responded by handing them an 11-4 beatdown at Petco Park. Lars Nootbaar homered on Casey Mize’s first pitch, and Mize never found the brakes. He allowed seven runs and three home runs in four innings while the Diamondbacks extended their season for at least another day.

San Diego had a chance to lock down the National League’s No. 4 seed and guarantee a Wild Card Series at Petco Park. Instead, Friday’s defeat put postseason geography back in play.

The Padres are now 49-30 at Petco Park and 40-41 on the road. They have won nearly 62 percent of their home games and fewer than half of their games everywhere else. That makes the No. 4 seed a real competitive advantage. A best-of-three series is already unforgiving. The Padres had no reason to add travel, a hostile crowd and three guaranteed road games to that equation when the alternative remains sitting directly in front of it.

Padres need one win to clinch Wild Card home-field advantage

The Padres have a refreshingly simple assignment. Beat the D-backs once over the final two games, reach 90 wins and lock down the top Wild Card spot. The No. 4 seed hosts every game against the No. 5 seed.

The Diamondbacks have won six straight and are still chasing the final postseason spot. Friday was a difference between a team fighting for its life and the other finally getting a chance to exhale. The Padres earned the right to celebrate Thursday. That grace period lasted one night.

Dropping the final two games would drag them into a tiebreaker they shouldn’t want any part of. If the Padres, Cubs and Phillies all finish 89-73, Chicago would take the No. 4 seed, Philadelphia would get No. 5 and San Diego would tumble to No. 6. The Padres lost their season series to both clubs, so ties offer no protection.

That scenario would send San Diego to Atlanta, where the third-seeded Braves would host the entire Wild Card Series. Even a two-team tie with Chicago or Philadelphia could knock the Padres out of the home slot.

After Friday, the Padres still control this race. They just have little margin for error.

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