Padres' blockbuster trade with A's puts Xander Bogaerts succession plan into question

The San Diego Padres are all-in, again.

In a stunning, late-breaking move ahead of the MLB trade deadline, A.J. Preller and the Padres front office pulled off one of the biggest swings of the summer, acquiring dominant closer Mason Miller and left-handed starter JP Sears from the Oakland A’s. The cost included a massive haul of young talent, headlined by Leo De Vries, the No. 3 overall prospect in baseball and a player many believed was being groomed as the eventual heir to Xander Bogaerts at shortstop.

Also headed to Oakland in the blockbuster deal are right-handers Braden Nett, Henry Baez, and Eduarniel Nunez, all promising arms in San Diego’s farm system. It’s a steep price, but one that signals the Padres aren’t content watching from the fringes of the playoff picture. They’re doubling down.

Padres’ Mason Miller trade signals full commitment to Xander Bogaerts

Say what you will about Preller, but few executives in baseball are more willing to put all their chips on the table year after year. This deal may be the boldest yet. Not only does it give the Padres a terrifying late-inning weapon in Miller, who boasts a fastball that regularly touches 102, but it also adds a durable, controllable starter in Sears, who gives the rotation some balance and reliability.

But the bigger storyline, at least long term, might be what the Padres gave up to make this happen.

De Vries, the highly touted 18-year-old switch-hitting shortstop, was seen as the crown jewel of San Diego’s next generation. With exceptional plate discipline and the raw tools scouts salivate over, he was widely projected as the future anchor of the infield. More specifically, many viewed him as the natural successor to Xander Bogaerts — whose age, injury history, and massive contract raised questions about how long he’d realistically hold down the position.

That future plan has been thrown out the window. Bogaerts, 33 in October, is still playing on his $280 million contract through 2033. And while the Padres knew they were committing to a long window with the four-time All-Star when they signed him ahead of the 2023 season, some of his struggles in San Diego had already begun raising whispers about a scenario that would move him down the road. But this trade strongly suggests otherwise.

If Preller had any doubts about Bogaerts holding it down in the years to come, he likely wouldn’t have shipped off the best shortstop prospect in baseball.

To Bogaerts’ credit, he’s starting to answer the critics. After a sluggish start to the year and a brief stint on the injured list, the veteran has turned things around in recent months. Over his last 30 games, Bogaerts is slashing .310/.376/.469 with three home runs and nine RBIs — much more in line with the player San Diego envisioned when they made him the centerpiece of their 2023 offseason.

With De Vries gone and the prospect pipeline significantly lighter, the Padres are locked into Bogaerts, at least for the foreseeable future. There’s no internal insurance policy anymore. If this version of Bogaerts, the one hitting to all fields and flashing occasional pop — sticks around, the Padres may be just fine.

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