Padres' back of the rotation could decide everything in 2026

Happy Opening Day, Padres fans. The day has finally come where there is a clean slate for the Friars. We can leave last postseason's loss in the rearview and focus on the 2026 season.

On Thursday, first-year San Diego manager Craig Stammen will turn to Nick Pivetta as the club's Opening Day starter, facing the Detroit Tigers. Even though there is excitement surrounding this particular day with this particular pitcher, we cannot help but wonder what games will look like for San Diego once we flip over to the bottom of the starting rotation.

The Padres added Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez to the roster this past winter. Perhaps unexpectedly, we didn't think both arms would immediately be part of the starting rotation — even if having a six-man rotation was entertained — but here we are. These two guys can absolutely make or break the season for San Diego. They each cannot tank. In fact, they both need to be decent.

Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez hold critical roles for San Diego Padres in 2026

Buehler, a lifelong rival as a career LA Dodger, is happy to be here. The Padres are giving him a chance in a put up or shut up type of season for him. That type of motivation alone should be enough for Padres fans to trust in Buehler to be a solid bottom-of-the-rotation arm.

He struggled a bit during spring training, bolstering a 6.60 ERA with 21 hits allowed in 15 innings, but most of this came from his final outing. He handed out seven runs on 11 hits (?!?!?) against the D-backs. His penultimate start was strong, tossing five scoreless frames with seven strikeouts.

So what does this tell us? It probably means that Buehler is going to be very hit-or-miss in 2026. We just have to bank on him hitting more often than missing across 25 or so starts.

Now for Márquez, who has not seen a season with an ERA south of 4.50 since 2021. Last year, he reeled in a 6.70 ERA in 26 starts, which still spells trouble, considering he is pitching in the same division. His overall numbers this spring were even worse, tallying a 7.16 ERA in 16.1 innings. He saved himself a tad in his final start, dotting up eight strikeouts in 4.2 innings with one run allowed.

Buehler and Márquez each had troubling starts at spring training, but Stammen and his staff clearly have a vision. They believe that these two pitchers will be good enough to move the needle for the Padres this season. That might be a bit too over-trusting towards the veteran right-handers, but fans may as well get behind the idea that they can be productive. San Diego's season depends on it.