Padres’ arbitration comfort just got tested after Skubal’s ceiling-shattering win

A.J. Preller has spent a decade treating arbitration like the thing you don’t mess around with if you actually care about clubhouse trust. Settle early, keep it clean, avoid the hearing room entirely. That’s the whole Padres vibe — and we even framed it as a quietly “ruthless” habit that’s become tradition under Preller. 

Then Tarik Skubal walked into a hearing on February 5, 2026 and basically punted the old arbitration “ceiling” into the sun.

Skubal won a record $32 million salary for 2026 after the Tigers filed at $19 million. And because arbitration panels must pick one number (not split the difference), Detroit didn’t just lose. They got hit with the kind of outcome that changes how every front office thinks about risk. 

Padres are staring at a brutal truth after Skubal’s record arbitration decision

Here’s the part Padres fans should actually care about: Skubal’s case shows how arbitration is starting to behave like a weird, hostile mini free agency, especially for elite talent. Skubal and Scott Boras could lean on the rule that lets five-plus-year players compare themselves to any MLB salary, not just other arbitration guys. That means comps like Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole are suddenly “fair game,” and that’s how you end up with a number that looks a lot closer to market value than “historical precedent.” 

Now zoom back to San Diego. The Padres just kept their streak alive again — no hearing, no drama, contracts settled across the board. MLB.com straight-up called it Preller’s “perfect record” of avoiding hearings since he took over in 2014, with the last Padres hearing coming before that (Andrew Cashner). That matters because Skubal’s win is exactly the nightmare scenario Preller has been dodging: one panel decision that “sets your budget on fire” in a single afternoon.

This is where we turn to Mason Miller. His arbitration number is manageable (MLB.com reported $4 million for 2026), and he’s under control through 2029 as a Super Two — which means this isn’t a one-time conversation. If Miller keeps pitching like a human highlight reel, his price tags are only going one direction. 

Skubal’s ruling is the warning label. If your player turns into an awards-level monster, arbitration might not care about your old internal “ceiling” anymore. So Preller’s real challenge isn’t “can he keep the streak alive?” It’s whether the Padres can keep buying peace early, before a hearing turns into a payroll jump-scare.