Nick Pivetta’s ugly Brewers history looms over Padres’ must-win NLDS Game 3

The San Diego Padres were one strike away. One perfectly placed Mason Miller fastball or one swing over the top of a slider from Jackson Chourio would have sent San Diego home with a split. Instead, Chourio walked off the Padres to win Game Two 4-3, and now the Padres are heading home down 2-0 in a best-of-five. All those people who use the term "must-win" incorrectly are going to be using it correctly for this one because the cushion is gone.

Nick Pivetta is the man in charge of keeping the Padres season alive, at least to start. The timing is a good thing. Since coming off the IL in early September, Pivetta has a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings with 22 strikeouts and four walks, including his start in the Wild Card series. The opponent, though, is the problem. In five career starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, Pivetta has an 8.76 ERA. It’d be easy to say it’s largely due to a brutal night in his rookie year, and it’s partly true, but it’s also a little too convenient.

Nick Pivetta's Brewers problem isn't only a 2017 problem

That night in question came in July 2017. The stadium was still called Miller Park, and Pivetta was a 24-year-old with the Phillies. He struck out the first four Brewers he saw, but things unraveled fast. The Brewers scored eight runs off him, with a grand slam from Ryan Braun putting the exclamation point on the damage. He gave up nine runs over five innings, which actually could have been worse after that brutal second. 

Anyone who wants to believe that’s the only issue he’s ever had is free to believe it. So let’s just take that out, even though it makes for an unfair statistical argument. Other than that game, he’ swallowed 15 runs in 19.2 innings against Milwaukee, with 19 strikeouts and 11 walks. That’s a 6.86 ERA, which is definitely better. But it’s still not good.

The individual outings show the pattern getting louder. He gave up four runs in five innings in 2022 with Boston. Then he gave up three runs on seven hits over 5.2 innings in 2023. In 2024, it was five runs on seven hits in 3.1 innings. And last year, he gave up three runs on four hits over 5.2 innings, but he also walked five. He likely won’t be asked to go terribly deep in this game, but in games where he was likely asked to go deeper, he couldn’t. 

That last one should concern Padres fans the most. He was in the middle of a career year and still had to grind it out just to get into the sixth inning with all those walks. Even Pivetta, at his very best, struggled with this lineup, which has a lot of the same cast and crew. It’s easy to write off a game in 2026 that featured the 2007 Rookie of the Year, but one from just over a year ago is a little more relevant.

Now, if you want to look at it from a positive lens, there’s a pretty reasonable counterargument. The sample is unreasonably small in that it’s five starts that are spread out over nine seasons and three different uniforms. The overall sample is small enough, and one start a year could easily be a coincidence rather than a problem. Pivetta did return after months on the IL this year and looked like he never left. He threw five shutout innings in his first start back and really didn’t slow down much after that. 

Still, even with a small sample spread across different iterations of Pivetta’s career, one number deserves attention. He’s walked 14 Brewers in those 24.2 innings. That’s a lot, especially for someone who walked just eight in 34.2 innings all year this year. Milwaukee makes pitchers come to them, and Game Two was a perfect example. Miller is the best closer in baseball, and he couldn’t get much chase from them before Chourio finished the game.

If we see Pivetta begin to nibble, the Brewers are happy to just keep the bats on their shoulders until they get something to hit. If he attacks the zone as he has for the last few years and as he did after he returned, the 8.76 ERA becomes a footnote. 

There is workload to consider. Pivetta only pitched into the fourth against the Cubs last week. He allowed just one run but dealt with traffic before yielding to the bullpen. The hook worked with a series lead, but it gets tougher to justify now with Miller coming off throwing 40 pitches. The off day certainly helps, but it doesn’t fix everything. It would be very helpful if Pivetta could give them five or six innings to help the bullpen line up the way it’s supposed to line up. 

His opponent will be Dustin May, who has allowed just three runs in 22 innings against the Padres this season, but he wasn’t particularly good for the Brewers after they acquired him. It’s a matchup the Padres can absolutely win. The offense needs to step up, which it largely hasn’t in the first two games.

Pivetta doesn’t need to rewrite nine years of history in Game Three. He just needs a cleaner start than he’s had against a team that’s never allowed him one. His September shows that he’s a different pitcher. The history against the Brewers says they’re going to find a way to get him. The Padres’ season depends on September Pivetta winning out.

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