MLB insider sounds Padres alarm after igniting Fernando Tatis Jr. trade rumors

If you’re looking for a quiet winter in San Diego, Bob Nightengale pretty much slammed that door shut. On Foul Territory, the longtime insider relayed what he’s hearing from rival front offices: “When you talk to general managers, they say the Padres are in big-time trouble. They’re losing money.” When the talk shifts from red ink to fixes, all roads lead to the one asset that checks every box, talent, age, contract: Fernando Tatis Jr.

The logic as framed is stark. This roster is laced with backloaded commitments that get heavier as core pieces age. Rival execs look at those deals and see limited flexibility. In that landscape, Nightengale says Tatis is the one with real, immediate trade value — “the only one with a moveable contract” — compared to the backloaded pacts for Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. It’s the simplest form of baseball math: if you need to move dollars and get actual talent back, you don’t shop the contracts no one wants; you dangle the superstar everyone does.

Bob Nightengale’s warning puts Fernando Tatis Jr. in Padres trade crosshairs

But “moveable” and “likely” are not synonyms. On the field, Tatis is a two-way force who changed the Padres’ defensive identity in right and still carries a Silver Slugger-esque bat. Trading that kind of player doesn’t simply create cap space, it creates a credibility problem. You don’t swap out a pillar without replacing both the production and the reason fans believe the window is still open.

There’s also the leverage game to consider. Rumors like these do more than titillate fan bases; they test the market and set expectations. Letting it be known that nothing is off the table can flush out aggressive suitors, force creative proposals, and maybe even shake loose a contract offset elsewhere. If San Diego is truly navigating cash-flow strain tied to backloaded deals, telegraphing a willingness to consider anything — even a Tatis blockbuster — strengthens the club’s posture in smaller trades and mid-tier signings. It tells the league: bring your best, or don’t bother.

If you move Tatis, you’re not just clearing future money, you’re trying to survive the shock this season and beyond. What’s the plan to backfill elite right-field defense, 30-homer pop, and the nightly matchup gravity he exerts? Do you convert high-end prospects into immediate help, or chase a multi-player package that spreads risk across the diamond? Are you resetting around pitching and run prevention, or doubling down on star power at a discount? The only way a Tatis trade makes sense is if it unlocks multiple wins, financially, competitively, and culturally all at once. That’s a threading of needles, not a quick fix.

Nightengale’s bottom line, Padres in “big-time trouble,” with Tatis as the lone truly moveable star, doesn’t guarantee a move; it clarifies the stakes. San Diego built a brand on taking big swings, and big swings come with big payments due. If the front office can massage those backloaded commitments and still add around the edges, the alarm fades into background noise. If not, and if ownership views 2026–28 obligations as untenable, then the unthinkable slides from rumor to real conversation.