MLB insider’s prospect check-in brings a 2026 reality check for the Padres

The San Diego Padres need pitching. That’s the headline, the subhead, and the whole offseason mood. Dylan Cease is gone, Yu Darvish is out for the year, and the rotation math gets uncomfortable fast after Nick Pivetta, Micheal King, and tempered expectations around Joe Musgrove’s return. So of course, when AJ Cassavell drops a prospect check-in that includes the words “useful depth” and “midseason breakthrough,” fans immediately look for the nearest fast-forward button.

Here’s the thing: Cassavell’s back half is the important part — and it’s also the part that politely tells everyone to pump the brakes.

MLB insider pours a little cold water on a Padres prospect’s 2026 timeline

Miguel Mendez is absolutely the kind of name worth circling. By all accounts, nobody in the system made louder strides last season. The Padres protected him for a reason, adding him to the 40-man roster last month like a team that knows it’s sitting on something real. The projection is obvious: if you’re looking for a young arm who can actually matter in the near future, Mendez is the one intriguing righty still standing after San Diego moved a lot of its upper-level pitching depth in recent deals.

But “projected to be really good” and “ready to carry you in April” are two different conversations.

Cassavell puts it bluntly; there's really no way that Mendez will break into the Opening Day rotation for the Padres. Not due to lack of talent, but rather because of the size of the jump to make, as well as the fact that the Padres cannot allow their development process to turn into a fire drill. This will be Mendez' first time in big league camp and this is a big deal, but it's not going to give him a crown.

The more realistic, and smart route for Mendez is to show up, get a taste of the environment, and become the arm Cassavell described, the type of arm you stow away, develop, and then deploy when the season inevitably demands it.

Yes, we’ll probably see him in 2026. It just likely won’t be in April. If the Padres are serious about maximizing what Mendez can be — not just what they need him to be — the impact is more likely to come later, when the wear and tear shows, and opportunity finds the next best arm.

That’s the reality check. And honestly, it’s a good one.