MLB expert exposes harsh truth about Padres’ playoff rotation

The San Diego Padres are barreling toward October with plenty of reasons to believe this team could make noise in the postseason. Their offense has shown flashes of the relentless, contact-heavy style that wears pitchers down. Their bullpen— though shaky of late — has enough depth to turn games into six-inning affairs when clicking. But for all the talk about bats and late-inning relief, the real story is what lies at the heart of every playoff run: starting pitching.

Right now, that’s where the Padres might be exposed.

Through mid-September, San Diego’s starting rotation sits in the bottom half of Major League Baseball. Ranked 16th in ERA (4.05), 21st in innings pitched, and 18th in WAR, the numbers paint a picture of a unit that has been more average than elite. 

MLB expert ranks Padres rotation near bottom among playoff teams

That’s not just a fan-driven narrative. Eno Sarris of The Athletic pulled no punches when discussing the Padres’ rotation outlook.

“Here’s a headline from Dennis Lin on The Athletic — ‘The Padres have enough concerns. Their starting pitching is the biggest.’ Sorta sums it up pretty well. By projections, they should be three or four spots higher. But those projections assume that Michael King is healthy and that Dylan Cease will finally put up the low-threes ERA his predictive peripherals say he will. Those assumptions are difficult to believe right now.”

Sarris currently ranks the Padres’ starting group as the 12th-least feared among all playoff contenders. That’s a damning assessment, especially for a franchise that’s built to win now. And it’s not hard to see why.

Michael King, who looked like a revelation earlier this year, has already endured two injured-list stints and remains an open question mark heading into the stretch run. Dylan Cease continues to tease dominance, but his inconsistency, one outing electric, the next flat — has made it tough to trust him in a best-of-five or seven. Nick Pivetta, for all the value he’s provided, carries the weight of being the “surest” arm in a group that shouldn’t have so much uncertainty this late in the year.

Still, here’s the paradox: if it all clicks, the narrative flips overnight. A healthy King, a vintage Cease, and the battle-tested postseason version of Pivetta could transform this rotation from one of the least feared to one of the most dangerous. That trio has the pure stuff to match up with anyone, and in October, that can change the entire trajectory of a team.

So while the Padres’ bats and bullpen may spark optimism, it’s their starting rotation that will ultimately dictate how far they go. Sarris is right to sound the alarm, but Padres fans know the truth: if the arms collectively deliver, San Diego could not only silence the critics but also put themselves on a legitimate World Series path.

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