Mike Shildt's bold Dylan Cease decision could be the Padres' undoing

The game isn't over yet, but the San Diego Padres have found themselves in an early hole against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLDS. And the potential fatal error might already be identified: manager Mike Shildt giving Dylan Cease the start.

Cease has never pitched on three days of rest in his career. His longest playoff start came in Game 1 of the NLDS when he lasted 3 1/3 innings and surrendered five earned runs on six hits and two walks. Before that? He logged 2 2/3 innings across two outings in 2020 and 2021 with the Chicago White Sox. He allowed three earned runs on two hits and three walks.

On Wednesday night, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings. He allowed three earned runs on four hits and a walk. He threw 38 pitches (22 strikes). Bryan Hoeing came on in relief and immediately gave up two runs of his own. It was 5-0 in the third inning.

In summation? Not good. The Padres had Martin Perez well-rested (despite being left off the Wild Card roster) and a stacked bullpen behind him. In hindsight, that very much felt like the safer decision. Because if Perez had faltered (which couldn't have been much worse than what Cease did), the Padres would've had both Cease and Yu Darvish rested for Game 5 at Dodger Stadium.

But Shildt wanted to step on the Dodgers' throats, which is completely understandable. Had the Cease decision worked out, he would've been lauded a genius, putting his team in an enviable position to face the New York Mets in the NLCS.

Sadly, though, this could be the Padres' undoing. They just had so much momentum after their 10-2 victory in Game 2 and their energetic 6-5 win in front of an insane Petco Park on Tuesday night.

Now, barring a massive comeback, they will be facing the Dodgers on Friday night back in LA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. And don't forget, Wednesday night was a bullpen game for LA. Ryan Brasier started Game 4 because of how depleted their pitching staff is. This shouldn't even have been a discussion.

Mike Shildt's bold Dylan Cease decision puts Padres in precarious NLDS situation

Cease is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers in the league, but the manner in which he failed to execute in Game 1 shouldn't have earned him another shot on short rest, even if it was coming in front of the home crowd. When this announcement was made, Padres fans were certainly excited, but part of us was wondering if this was a classic case of "forcing it."

In theory, yes, Cease is your best pitcher, but he didn't deliver when the Padres needed anything but an early exit in Game 1. They had just lost Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery and were forging a new path forward. After getting 10 days in between in his final regular season start and his first playoff start, he's getting his second playoff start four days later? Too much of a rollercoaster.

Was there a perfect plan? Absolutely not. Would Padres fans have felt differently if Cease was getting another crack at the Dodgers on the road in a hypothetical Game 5? Not sure about that.

But there was an opportunity to give the Padres a true "all hands on deck" situation with two of their best pitchers for a do-or-die matchup, and now that's decidedly not going to be the case.