Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar is coming off the best season of his career. Playing in 158 games, he hit .280 with a career-high 24 home runs and .839 OPS, keying the Padres to 93 wins and a playoff berth in 2024. Entering free agency for the fifth time since 2020, he's looking to cash in on his career season. ESPN Insider Jeff Passan reports that Profar is seeking at least a three-year deal on the open market.
Both MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs are optimistic in Profar's ability to land a three-year deal. MLBTR and the median crowd source on FanGraphs' free agent tracker both predict the Padres left fielder to get $45 million over those three years. It's worth noting that three of the four writers on MLBTR predict Profar to re-sign with San Diego.
Profar has been inconsistent offensively for much of his career. Once considered the top prospect in baseball going as far back as the 2011 season, he fell short of those lofty expectations yet found a way to put together a solid career. First joining the Padres following the 2020 season, he has spent three separate stints in San Diego and experienced the majority of his career success there.
His 2024 season was the most successful of them all. Not only did he post a lot of career-highs across the board but his underlying batting metrics on Baseball Savant showed drastic improvement relative to his career norms. His average exit velocity jumped nearly 5 MPH from 2023 to 2024, leading to a spike in hard-hit rate (44.4%) and barrel rate (7.2%). Both marks are career highs and well above his career averages of 33.5% and 4.7%.
Profar had always been a disciplined hitter, especially during in his time in San Diego. With a great eye for the strike zone, a great feel for getting the bat on ball, and rarely ever chasing out of the zone, he would grind out long at-bats and wear down pitchers. Add in a power surge to his approach and he became one of the league's most productive bats, ranking sixth in the National League by wRC+ (139) for 2024.
Should Profar leave San Diego in free agency, that will leave the Padres without arguably their most important offensive player from 2024. While Jackson Merill and Fernando Tatis Jr. have center field and right field locked down for the foreseeable future, the Padres do not have a long-term solution in place for left field. Tirso Ornelas is their top outfield prospect, enjoying a solid season with Triple-A El Paso, but they might not want to rely on a player with zero MLB experience to begin the 2025 season.