How Padres could get stuck in three-way NL Wild Card tie with Cubs, Phillies

The Padres could win 90 games and still enter October as the NL’s sixth seed. The reason is simple. San Diego got waxed and ended up going 1-11 against the Cubs and Phillies. Those losses could decide far more than a number in the standings. They could keep every game of the Wild Card Series away from Petco Park.

Entering September 22, the Padres and Cubs were both 87-69, with the Phillies one game back at 86-70. All three of them have six games remaining. If the Padres and Cubs each go 3-3 while the Phillies finish 4-2, all three will end the season at 90-72. 90 wins in the Wild Card era is normally considered a success, and in this case, it still be…sort of.

Either way, if all three teams finished tied, Chicago won five of six against the Padres and six of seven against the Phillies, giving the Cubs the No. 4 seed. Philadelphia swept all six games against San Diego and would take No. 5. The Padres would get No. 6. 

Why a three-way tie sends the Padres to the No. 6 seed

The Friars should absolutely aim for landing in fourth place. The higher seed hosts every game of a best-of-three Wild Card Series. Through Monday, the Padres were 49-29 at Petco and 38-40 on the road. Home cooking clearly has been an advantage all season long.

Fifth place would change the road opponent, but not the travel. If the playoffs started today, and the Friars were to finish in the sixth-seed, they would visit Atlanta and, if they advance, face the Dodgers. A fifth seed would visit whichever club finishes fourth, in this example, the Cubs, with top-seeded Milwaukee waiting in the next round. Each route has some serious obstacles.

Atlanta is already preparing for its likely assignment. The Braves are rolling out Chris Sale for Wild Card Game 1 and Tyler Mahle for Game 2. The standings give the Padres a clear goal. They should want to host, the Padres need to win more of their final six than Chicago and at least as many as Philadelphia. 

They have three games at Dodger Stadium, then three against Arizona at Petco to find it. October is close. The Padres still get to decide whether it begins at home.

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