Here is what a Jackson Merrill contract extension from the Padres should look like

Despite the preponderance of evidence to suggest that he should have won, San Diego Padres rookie Jackson Merrill "merely" finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year race after the 2024 season. Ignoring the actual result for the moment, Merrill established himself as a star and attention has understandably turned to what the future holds for him in San Diego.

It was already revealed that Padres tried to get a pre-debut extension with Merrill done, but the two sides were unsuccessful in reaching an agreement. Such deals were unheard until the last several years, but now they seem to be all the rage for teams looking to keep young studs cost-controlled despite a mixed track record of success with them.

Despite failing to come to an agreement earlier, San Diego giving Merrill an extension still seems like it is on the table and is definitely something the Padres should try to do. However, coming up with an actual contract with dollars and years that makes sense for both sides is easier said than done.

Projecting a potential Padres extension for Jackson Merrill that might actually work

The easiest way to think about a Merrill extension is to break it up by what each side would want and then look at existing extensions as a baseline for the actual market. The latter is pretty easy as we have the team-friendly $200 million extension Ronald Acuna Jr. signed after the 2018 season and then the substantially more expensive (and convoluted) Julio Rodriguez extension that guaranteed him at least $210 million with room for a lot more. Given the Padres' payroll situation and general market sentiment, the best bet is that a Merrill deal would land somewhere between those two if it were to happen.

For the Padres, they will want to get some cost-certainty and potential savings during Merrill's arbitration years, in addition to as much reasonable and flexible team control possible. For Merrill, he will want to get a chunk of guaranteed money to secure his future, but also not completely foreclose the possibility of a free agent payday before he is too old to take advantage of it.

The length and general structure of Acuna Jr.'s deal seems to make the most sense for both sides. San Diego would add at least two more years of team control past arbitration under this scenario. However, Merrill almost certainly wouldn't sign such an extension without a substantial raise in terms of dollars, so perhaps modest raises in the early years of the extension and then $23-25 million a year for the bigger guaranteed money portions would appeal to both parties. Then, the Padres could tack on a pair of option years on the end for $30 million a year with reasonable buyouts for both.

The end result would be something in the realm of an eight-year extension at around $140-150 million guaranteed (depending on the exact structure and buyout amounts) with two expensive club options on the tail end. That is a lot of risk for the Padres to take on a guy who is just getting started, but also would be significantly cheaper than what Merrill could end up costing San Diego if he keeps this up and they just let arbitration play out before trying to extend him closer to free agency.

More Padres News from Friars on Base