Giants' attempt at leaping Padres in NL West features overpay for middling outfielder

The San Francisco Giants are doing that thing again where they announce a big-brain NL West pivot, but the move itself lands like a polite golf clap.

Harrison Bader is headed to the Bay on a two-year, $20.5 million deal (pending a physical).  And Bader can absolutely pick it in the outfield. If your 2025 outfield defense made pitchers consider early retirement, adding a legit glove is a real upgrade.

If San Francisco is presenting this as a turning-point move, it feels more like a familiar detour.

Padres’ biggest NL West threat isn’t the Giants’ pricey Bader gamble

This is a team paying real money for a player whose value is still mostly “runs really hard and catches stuff.” Offensively, Bader’s career line screams “fine” more than “fear.” His career OPS sits around .714 and his career OPS+ is 96 — basically, a slightly-below-average bat over the long haul. Yes, he popped in 2025 (.277/.347/.449 with 17 homers, 11 steals, .796 OPS), and credit where it’s due: that’s a great year. The problem is the Giants are paying for the best-case version of Bader while also moving him into a park that doesn’t exactly juice offense.

Center field defense is awesome… but it’s not a shortcut past teams with more impact bats, more pitching, and more top-end talent. It’s a floor-raiser move, not a “surprise, we’re better than San Diego now” move.

Now, before Padres fans start pointing and laughing too hard: San Diego has plenty of its own spring-training homework. The roster still has to answer real questions — lineup balance, depth, and how stable the pitching plan is over a full season. The Padres don’t get to dunk on a rival’s overpay and pretend everything’s solved in Peoria.

But if the Giants truly thought Harrison Bader was the piece that flips the NL West hierarchy? That’s not a real plan at all.