Fernando Tatis Jr.’s strange power outage isn’t the Padres disaster fans expected

There is a version of Fernando Tatis Jr. panic that would feel pretty easy to understand. If he were rolling over weak grounders and chasing everything, Padres fans would have every right to start refreshing the panic button. But that isn’t really what is happening here.

Tatis is still hitting the ball like it owes him money. The home runs just have not followed yet, which makes this slump less of a flashing sign and more of a very weird baseball problem. Through this early stretch, he is still sitting on a career-best 66.7 percent hard-hit rate, with a 94.3 mph average exit velocity. His hard-hit rate is way up from last season, while his average exit velocity continues to show the bat speed is still there.

That part should keep Padres fans from spiraling too hard. Tatis is homerless. His slugging percentage is ugly. The slash line doesn’t exactly scream middle-of-the-order threat. But this doesn’t look like a hitter who has lost the ability to impact the baseball. 

It looks like a hitter whose contact quality and contact shape are having an argument.

Padres’ launch-angle concern explains Fernando Tatis Jr.’s strange homer drought

That is where the launch angle comes in. Tatis’ average launch angle has dropped from 9.4 degrees last season to 3.2 degrees this year. His attack angle is also down, from eight degrees last season to six degrees this year.  That means the ball is coming off his bat hard, but too often it is coming off on a flatter, lower plane. That can produce plenty of rockets. It just doesn’t always produce souvenirs.

Usually when a star power bat goes homerless, we go hunting for missing impact. With Tatis, the impact is standing right there in the room wearing a name tag. The issue is that too much of it is showing up as hard line drives, low lasers, and ground-ball contact instead of the kind of lifted damage that turns Petco Park into a party.

Some of this may be tied to the stance and swing adjustments. Tatis has looked less open, a little more controlled, and more willing to let the ball travel. In theory, that can be a good thing. It can help a hitter see pitches longer, stay through the ball, and avoid selling out for pull-side power every time he gets something hittable.

But every adjustment has a receipt. Right now, the receipt looks like reduced lift. That doesn’t mean the adjustment is bad. It just means the Padres are watching the early tradeoff play out in real time. Tatis may be giving himself a better chance to make firm contact, but he hasn’t yet found the sweet spot between controlled violence and full Tatis-level damage. 

The swing-and-miss still matters, too. His overall whiff rate is up to 29.7 percent, and the breaking ball line is especially odd, with Tatis whiffing at a 42.3 percent clip. That isn’t exactly the cleanest path back to superstar production.

The Padres can live with a weird April version of Tatis if the underlying thunder is still there, especially while they are winning around him. That part matters. This would feel a lot darker if San Diego were losing games because Tatis’ missing power had left the offense stranded. Instead, the Padres have managed to keep moving while waiting for one of their biggest bats to start getting the ball in the air.

The simplest read is probably the right one: the homers are coming if Tatis keeps hitting the ball this hard. Players don’t live forever at 66.7 percent hard contact with no payoff. Eventually, some of those missiles are going to find the right launch window, and when they do, this whole conversation will look silly.

But until then, the Padres are stuck in a strange middle ground. Tatis’ power outage is real. The lack of home runs is not imaginary. The launch-angle dip is worth watching. The swing-and-miss is still part of the package. Yet the bat is not dead. The danger is not gone. And the superstar version of Tatis isn’t buried.

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