Fernando Tatis Jr.’s brutal early trend is quietly becoming the Padres’ biggest problem

The San Diego Padres' 5-5 start to the season has, predictably, featured a lot of ups and downs from the veteran-laden roster A.J. Preller put together.

On the good side of things, Randy Vásquez is pitching like an ace, leading all pitchers with 0.9 bWAR through two starts. Likewise, Manny Machado is on a heater to open the season, while Jackson Merrill is finally starting to look like his rookie self again.

Meanwhile, Walker Buehler looks lost on the mound while a huge chunk of the lineup is underperforming. In particular, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts have been a mess, contributing -0.1 fWAR each to the cause.

However, if there's one player that needs to take on a brunt of the blame for the Friars' middling start, it's Fernando Tatis Jr. The 27-year-old is the face of the franchise, but he's currently leading all Padres hitters with 11 strikeouts. If the lineup is going to start scoring more runs on a frequent basis, they need their leadoff (or No. 2) hitter to start making a bigger impact.

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s slow start is fueled by contact issues, but Padres should see a light at the end of the tunnel

Through the team's first 10 games of the year, Tatis has struck out in 25% of his plate appearances and whiffed on more than 30% of his swings. Both figures are well below league average, which is a troubling trend for someone who has had serious swing-and-miss issues in the past.

That being said, Tatis' overall numbers -- he owns a .566 OPS and 70 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances -- betray the underlying data. Though he needs to make a lot more contact overall, he's actually been quite prolific when landing the bat on the ball. His hard-hit rate sits at an off-the-charts 70.4%, and he remains above average in barrel rate, swing speed, and exit velocity.

Combine all of that with a solid walk rate (13.6%) that's boosted by by improved plate discipline (he's chasing outside the zone less than in recent years), and it's no wonder that the expected stats think he's still performing like he's in the World Baseball Classic. His xwOBA is nearly 100 points higher (.363) than his actual mark (.267), suggesting that he's been the victim of some brutal luck thus far in 2026.

Of course, the best way to change luck is by covering for your biggest weaknesses, so Tatis would be wise to really hone in on his whiffing habits; it doesn't matter how hard he hits the ball if he's not hitting it all that often. But for those worried about his surface numbers, just know that nearly all of the data suggests the All-Star version of the right fielder should return to the fold any day.