Fernando Tatis Jr.-Jackson Merrill home run surge raises the Padres’ playoff ceiling

The Padres are no longer waiting for their offense to show up. It’s here. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have been driving the whole thing since the All-Star Break. Tatis has launched 12 home runs since, tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the MLB lead. Merrill sits directly behind them with 11, tied with Wilyer Abreu, Matt Olson and Alex Bregman.

23 second-half home runs from the Padres’ two most electric players. It’s an outrageous change to what the Friars can realistically become over the final stretch. This team is no longer simply hanging around the NL playoff picture anymore. The stars have shown up and are looking to wreck it.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have transformed the Padres’ offense

The first half gave us plenty of reasons to doubt the lineup. Tatis went 55 games without a home run before finally breaking through at the end of May. Merrill was sitting on a .601 OPS around the same time. The Padres kept waiting for two of its biggest bats to start producing like two of its biggest bats.

Tatis is now slashing .290/.361/.453 with an .814 OPS and 17 home runs on the year. His two-homer performance Sunday was another reminder of his turnaround.

Merrill has been right there with him. This is closer to what the Padres envisioned this season. Not one star getting hot while the other tries to find his swing. But having their long-term investments attack pitchers together, and the results have changed the personality of the entire team.

The Padres have gone an MLB-best 21-7 over the past month. They have moved from the outskirts of the playoff race into sole possession of the final NL Wild Card spot.

The home run leaderboard is fun. The more important story is how unrecognizable this offense looks compared to the one we saw during the first half of the season. The Friars entered the All-Star break batting .226 and scoring fewer than four runs per game. Since the break, that average has jumped to .274, while the Padres are producing more than five runs per night.

Tatis and Merrill are at the center of that transformation. The Padres have hit 49 second-half homers, with two of their franchise stars owning 23 of them. Nearly half of San Diego’s power production is coming from two hitters who can take over a game without any help.

The Padres are simply scoring more, winning more and finally getting game-changing production from the players built to lead them.

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