Confounding Aaron Judge playoff reality has Padres fans exhaling

If you’re a Padres fan, October has a funny way of turning “what if” into “thank goodness.” Three years ago, San Diego took a moon-shot swing at the biggest bat on the planet, flying Aaron Judge to Petco Park and dangling a historic contract to make him the face of the franchise. Today, while the Yankees are staring at a 0–2 ALDS hole, the confounding playoff version of Judge is front and center again: gaudy box-score hits, thin on game-swinging damage, and a brutal miss in the one moment that begged for a swing that could change everything. That’s the same postseason headache Padres fans just lived through — traffic on the bases, no payoff. But they get to watch again, only this time it’s happening 2,500 miles away in pinstripes.

It’s not that Judge isn’t producing at all. He’s 8-for-18 (.444) this postseason, which looks great until you zoom into the leverage: just one extra-base hit, two RBIs, and the signature at-bat so far is a bases-loaded, nobody-out strikeout in the sixth inning of Game 1 — a splitter well off the plate from Kevin Gausman that short-circuited the Yankees’ best chance before Toronto ran away 10–1. The Jays then bludgeoned New York again in Game 2, and suddenly the ALDS math is simple: the Yankees need an emphatic, timely Judge, not just a loud batting average. Padres fans have seen that movie; they know box-score sugar isn’t the same as October substance.

Judge’s ALDS moments give San Diego a surprising sense of relief

Rewind to December 2022, when the Padres went big-game hunting. Judge and his agents slipped into San Diego and met for hours with the late Peter Seidler and A.J. Preller at Petco. Multiple outlets reported San Diego was prepared to top the Yankees’ money — widely characterized as “more than $400 million,” with one New York report pegging it at $415 million, before Judge chose legacy in the Bronx at nine years and $360 million.

Whether it rose to a formal offer or not, the Padres were clearly ready to break the sport to get him. In another timeline, this week’s discourse could’ve been about Judge’s bases-loaded swing ending San Diego’s season, not New York’s momentum

Instead, San Diego pivoted and committed $280 million to Xander Bogaerts, an 11-year deal with a full no-trade clause that runs through 2033. Different player, different profile, same organizational thesis at the time: stack star bats and figure out the rest. You can debate the value curve in year 10, but this much is undeniable: the money that might’ve gone to Judge got redeployed across the infield, and the Padres kept their powder dry for later moves rather than tying up $400-plus million in one corner outfielder. 

And now here we are in October 2025, and the moment that lingers is pure postseason baseball: Gausman versus Judge with the inning and the game tilting on every pitch. After working back to a full count, Judge chased the put-away splitter out of the zone for strike three.

The opportunity evaporated, the door cracked for Toronto’s avalanche, and the narrative that dogs Judge — supernova regular seasons, oddly mortal Octobers received a fresh chapter. That’s the razor’s edge San Diego just walked in its own Wild Card exit, when base runners turned into stranded regret and one or two plate appearances flipped a series. Different coast, same problem. 

The weird part is how the numbers tell two stories. On paper, Judge’s line shines (8-for-18, .444; only one extra-base hit, two RBIs). In context, the bulk of those knocks haven’t bent the scoreboard the right way.

Meanwhile, back in the NL, the Padres’ own October ended with a 3–1 Game 3 loss at Wrigley, a night defined by empty rallies, a late homer that came too late, and a postgame stew about the strike zone. The lesson, again: stars matter, but situational offense wins series. Adding Judge in 2023 wouldn’t have guaranteed the one thing San Diego has chased ever since — ruthless, timely production under playoff pressure. As Judge and the Yankees scramble to keep their season alive, Padres fans can breathe out and move on to the offseason with clarity: the path forward isn’t about one megadeal bat, it’s about constructing an October-proof offense that turns base runners into haymakers when the count and the season hang in the balance.