Cease’s recent clunker in a contract year could have teams second-guessing his worth

One of San Diego's top arms, Dylan Cease, is coming off an ugly start, and definiely one he would soon like to forget. He went just four innings, allowing nine hits, three walks, and a career-high nine earned runs while recording four strikeouts. 

After the incredible performance he put together against the Guardians, Cease was unable to make it through five innings. This marks the second time in three starts that he's failed to do so. He now has a head-turning 7.98 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP through 14 ⅔ innings. If you’re Cease, these are numbers you do not want to see, no matter how early, in a contract year. However, he may be better than the results he has been seeing. 

Despite the nine runs in last night's start, his four-seam, changeup, and slider still displayed plus stuff and great shapes. Only three of the nine hits he gave up were actually hit hard (>95.0 MPH exit velocity). Even so, Cease struggled to generate whiffs, as he was only able to muster up nine on the night. 

He hasn't seen much success thus far, following a season where he finished collecting Cy Young and MVP votes. Cease is better than his 7.98 ERA suggests, as he still boasts a 2.73 FIP. For the most part, Cease has been efficient at limiting free-passes and home runs, all while collecting 18 strikeouts, leading to an 11.05 K/9. He currently holds the highest ERA-FIP differential in baseball – 5.25, suggesting that he and the Padres should soon see better results and they certainly need it.

With Yu Darvish still working his way back, and Kyle Hart, looking like he may not stick, San Diego needs their top arms to step up. There’s no reason to panic yet, as the Padres currently sit atop the monstrous NL West. However, if they are looking to maintain that, Cease will have to perform. 

Expected stats are a great tool, but if the production remains futile, the player remains replaceable. In a year where Dylan Cease is looking to squeeze out every dollar he can, he must be better than the poor starts he has strung together this year.  This could be a case of inconsistency, as it's haunted him most of his career. Cease though, has shown before that he is able to dance with the best of them.