Cardinals rebuild success shows why Padres are trapped by A.J. Preller's strategy

The San Diego Padres are in St. Louis this week, and the contrast on the field is hard to look away from. On one side sits a Cardinals team that tore itself down to the studs and somehow came out lighter, younger, and second in the NL Central. 

On the other is a Padres club clinging to the wild-card race with the worst offense in baseball and a farm system A.J. Preller keeps digging into and finding less and less. One of these two front offices has given themselves the wiggle room they need, and it’s not the Padres.

The Cardinals hit reset at exactly the right time

The thought of it was taboo in St. Louis, but Chaim Bloom took over the Cardinals and sold. He traded Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan this winter, completely remaking a team that was built a certain way. The Cardinals ate money to maximize the prospect hauls, and what they have now is a 2026 payroll that is sitting under $100 million, their lowest in a long time, with almost no guaranteed money on the books beyond this season. 

The part that hurts the most if you’re wearing your brown and gold everywhere is that, so far, it’s worked better than expected. The Cardinals are well over .500 into the middle of June, and on pace for nearly 90 wins and their first trip to the playoffs since 2022. The centerpiece is their rookie second baseman, JJ Wetherholt, and he’s been an on-base machine at the top of their order from day one. They reset, retooled, and are now contending all within one calendar year. 

And the prize of that, other than actually winning, is that Bloom has a ton of flexibility. He can buy at the deadline if he wants. He can spend in the winter if he wants. Or he could also just let this team continue to grow and make a splash later. He has real options. Preller, uh, doesn’t.

Why the Padres are trapped by Preller's strategy

Take a quick peek across the diamond at the Padres during this series. The Padres are in the race, for sure. They’re over .500 and could easily go on a run if their stars could just get going. But don’t forget the cost. The offense is, charitably, a disaster. Coming into the week, they’re last in baseball in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. And the problem truly is that the stars aren’t starring. You can’t tear this team down, and you also can’t really justify building around it.

And that’s the trap. A reset isn’t on the menu and hasn’t been for quite some time. When you trade Leo De Vries for Mason Miller and then don’t trade Miller at the deadline, you’ve already made your signal, and there’s not really a reverse gear to find. 

Now, the Cardinals were able to sell because they had players to move who could be moved and they had a young core of players waiting to at least see what they could be. The Padres have the expensive part, but without the cheap and controllable foundation that makes a teardown, or a reset, make sense. You can’t do it with a farm system that’s been sold for parts.

Imagine, though, if they had De Vries. They, of course, wouldn’t have Mason Miller, the man in the midst of one of the most dominant relief seasons in recent memory. But picture that they pushed the same button the Cardinals did, but with De Vries playing the role of Wetherholt. He’s the general guy who fans had penciled in next to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

But you can’t because he's an Athletic now. He’s looking fantastic in AA and getting close to knocking on the door. Again, they got a great relief pitcher for him, but was it worth it? And it’s not just him. Five of the season’s top seven names went out the door at the deadline last year. They moved Braden Nett, Boston Batemen, Cobb Hightower, and others. Year after year, the pattern holds with them cashing in the future for the present in an effort to win every year. But they still don't have a ring to show for it.

But it’s fair to point out that if someone wants the Padres to do what the Cardinals did, they don’t really have that future core to build around. There’s simply nobody for the reset. 

That’s not to say there isn’t hope with the ownership change. The nearly $4 billion sale price could potentially hand Preller additional financial rope. But more money for a win-now front office might just be the same bet with the stakes raised. 

The Cardinals will spend the series showing the Padres what the other path is. They’ll look at a 23-year-old version of a player who they could have kept while they sit with a roster with no easy exits. One team built itself an off-ramp while the other is just flooring it and hoping for the best. And, hey, maybe the best does happen. It’s certainly possible. If it does, who cares that they’re likely to flounder a bit in the coming years. But at this moment, it sure feels like one way is the right way and the other way is what the Padres have done.

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