Best-case scenario for Joe Musgrove's Padres return is sounding worse and worse

Joe Musgrove’s return has been sitting on the horizon for months now. Every time the Padres seem close enough to touch it, it moves again. This latest setback feels especially cruel because Musgrove felt incredibly close. He threw five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A El Paso last Thursday, needing only 60 pitches. One more rehab start seemed likely, and a Padres activation finally looked close.

Unfortunately, his arm failed to recover. Musgrove has yet to throw his between-starts bullpen session, and the Padres haven't scheduled his next rehab outing. Manager Craig Stammen said the righty is recovering eventually, just not as quickly as he would like. Everything is being evaluated daily. It’s pretty careful language for a situation moving in the wrong direction.

Padres can’t count on Joe Musgrove rescuing their rotation anymore

It doesn’t seem like the Padres believe Musgrove’s soreness represents another significant setback with his surgically repaired elbow. But looking where we’re at in the seasons, it certainly qualifies as a setback.

Musgrove needed 12 days between his two most recent rehab starts. Now another turn has been delayed without a new date on the schedule. A starter preparing for a postseason race must be able to pitch, recover and do it again five or six days later. Musgrove has handled the pitching part. The recovery has become a problem.

Even the optimistic version of this is shrinking. Let’s say the soreness fades, Musgrove throws another bullpen session and makes one final rehab start. That likely pushes his Padres return deeper into September. He would have only a handful of opportunities to face major-league hitters before the regular season ends, probably while working under a pitch count.

The Padres are also less desperate for a return than they were a month ago. Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have strengthened the rotation, while Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler have pitched better. Musgrove would still raise the staff’s ceiling if he returns healthy, but his name alone can’t justify removing somebody else from the roster.

“He wants to help our team win. He doesn’t just want to pitch,” Craig Stammen said.

San Diego gains very little by activating Musgrove for a cameo. A starter who requires extended rest between outings becomes difficult to carry during a playoff chase and even harder to trust in October. Nostalgia isn’t the play if it isn’t going to help the team.

Musgrove isn’t  finished. The latest report doesn’t suggest another major elbow injury, and he has earned every opportunity to complete this comeback properly. But we should stop treating his return as part of the Padres’ September plan. At this point, it is a possibility hanging off the side of it.

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