Baseball America’s 2029 Padres lineup sparks wild optimism and real panic among fans

Baseball America dropped a projected 2029 Padres lineup, and it might as well have come with a warning label for San Diego Padres fans: this will either make you dream big or start stress-cleaning your apartment.

On one hand, it’s everything Padres diehards want to believe about this franchise: that the next wave of prospects actually arrives together, that the front office resists flipping half the farm for another big name, and that Petco Park is still packed to watch a contender built around homegrown stars. On the other hand, the same graphic quietly assumes that two 36-year-old infielders are still holding down everyday jobs, Nick Pivetta is atop the rotation, and a whole army of pitching prospects somehow survived both injuries and the trade block.

In other words, it’s the most Padres thing imaginable: half parade route, half anxiety attack.

Baseball America’s 2029 Padres lineup depends on two aging stars and a lot of faith

Let’s start with the fun part. Baseball America’s lineup card has Ethan Salas behind the plate, Jackson Merrill in center, and Fernando Tatis Jr. roaming right field with his name still in bold. That’s the vision the organization keeps selling — that the current core blends with the next wave to form something sustainable instead of another “three-year window or bust” build.

Even some of the lesser-known names are exciting if you’re plugged into the system. Jorge Quintana at shortstop, Ryan Wideman in left, Kale Fountain at DH, and a rotation featuring Kruz Schoolcraft, Miguel Mendez, Kash Mayfield, and Humberto Cruz is Baseball America essentially saying, “Yes, there really is a wave coming.” If even half of those guys establish themselves as legit big leaguers, the Padres’ much-discussed “depth problem” looks more like a memory by 2029.

Of course, you don’t follow this franchise for more than five minutes without waiting for the other cleat to drop.

For Baseball America’s vision to come true, the Padres would have to do something they rarely do: not burn through their farm system to plug short-term holes. That's a lot of talent the projection assumes will all still be wearing “San Diego” across their chest in 2029 instead of starring for some other team after a July 29 blockbuster.

Then there’s the most obvious red flag in the graphic: Xander Bogaerts at second and Manny Machado at third, both still everyday fixtures as 36-year-olds. Best-case scenario, it means the bats have aged gracefully and the Padres have found ways to protect them defensively. Worst-case? You’re staring at two expensive, aging infielders whose range has shrunk while a wave of younger infielders is forced to DH, change positions, or get moved elsewhere.

And then there’s Nick Pivetta listed as SP1. Nothing against Pivetta — he’s a perfectly useful arm — but if he’s sitting at the top of the Padres rotation in 2029, that probably means one of two things:

1. The kids didn’t fully hit their ceilings, or
2. The Padres never went back into the deep-end of the free-agent pool for a true ace.

Neither of those scenarios exactly screams “NL powerhouse.”

Ultimately, Baseball America’s projected 2029 lineup is less a prediction and more a Rorschach test for where you stand on the Padres’ direction.

If you believe in the farm system, this looks like the outline of a legitimate contender. If you’re more cynical, this graphic feels like a flashing warning sign.

Either way, the lineup does its job: it sparks a conversation about who the Padres want to be over the next half-decade.

Baseball America has cast its vote. For Padres fans, the next few seasons will decide whether this projection becomes a fun “what if” graphic or the moment everyone looks back and says, “Wow, they actually pulled it off.”