Baseball America ranking makes Padres’ Coleman Borthwick pick look like a massive steal

It wasn’t shocking when the Padres drafted Coleman Borthwick with the 21st pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. Maybe the only twist was that he’s a towering right-handed hurler instead of throwing from the left side like the last two first round picks.  

The Padres then signed him for $3.8 million, exactly $424,700 below the assigned value of their pick. So now they’ve squeezed premium value out of the back half of the first round. 

There’s a gap between the major evaluators that may be too big to shrug off. Baseball America ranked him No. 8 overall and placed a 70 grade on his fastball. MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 43 with a 60-grade heater.

It makes sense the Padres planted their flag almost directly in between that disagreement. Taking him 21st aligns with Baseball America’s bullish view. And getting him under slot adds a win while also leaning the other way. 

Coleman Borthwick gave the Padres every reason to trust their board

The difference between eighth and 43rd is pretty big. We’re talking the difference between a premier talent in the class and a prospect who might have come off the board too soon.

But the Padres clearly saw enough. And they love a prep arm with a high ceiling. Baseball America believes Borthwick owns a potentially double-plus fastball after he touched 100 mph during his senior season. His power slider received a 60 grade, while his control came in at an encouraging 55. 

Even the lower evaluation in MLB Pipeline still sees a potential frontline starter. The debate is more about how loud of a ceiling he truly has, rather than whether there’s enough talent to justify the pick.

You can’t ignore the physical profile here. Borthwick is 6-foot-6 and weighs around 250 pounds. He already has the kind of frame that already looks comfortable on a mound.

His performance last season was also pretty ridiculous. This guy went 11-0 with a 0.21 ERA during his senior season at South Walton High School. He also struck out 121 hitters and walked seven across 65 2/3 innings. So we’re talking a 16.6 K/9, fewer than one walk per nine and a ridiculous 17.3 K/BB.

He was also a legitimate hitting prospect who batted .460 with nine home runs and a 1.498 OPS as a senior. He earned MVP honors during Team USA’s gold-medal run at the 2025 U-18 World Cup, throwing a complete-game shutout against Japan in the championship game.

This selection fits San Diego’s established draft identity. Borthwick became the 10th consecutive high-school player taken first by the Padres and the sixth pitcher during that stretch. He also follows prep arms Kash Mayfield and Kruz Schoolcraft, giving San Diego three consecutive first-round investments in high-school pitching.

A.J. Preller’s front office keeps returning to this market because it believes there is value available. College players offer more data and shorter development timelines. High-school prospects offer bigger developmental swings. That’s where the Padres like to live. 

We won’t know the final verdict for years. Knowing Preller, we may not even see him in a Padres uniform. Still, this could end up being quite the steal. 

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