Alex Bregman’s outrageous Red Sox contract should have Padres feeling better about their own mega-deals

Alex Bregman, one of 2025's most sought after free agents, signed a 3-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox last week, closing the door on a highly contested race to sign the long time Houston Astros third baseman. The nine-year veteran is coming out arguably the worst season of his career, where he put up his lowest season OPS, third lowest batting average, and second lowest OBP.

The $40 million per year deal should be seen as a massive overpay, as Bregaman has not been able to replicate the numbers he put up in 2019 that saw him finish second in MVP voting. For the San Diego Padres and their fans, Bregman's outrageous deal should be a sign that General Manager AJ Preller's high spending habits should not be criticized quite as much.

Bregman deal sheds new light on Xander Bogaerts situation

When Xander Bogaerts signed his 11-year, $280 million contract before the start of the 2023 season, many saw the deal as a massive overpay. Having already spent 10-years in Boston, signing the then 31-year-old to play until his age 42 season looked as if Preller was spending money just to spend. Yes, Bogaerts has been a relative disappointment in his two years with San Diego, but in no way does that justify wanting to move him to offload his contract.

A down year in 2023 and an injury filled 2024 had many Padres fans wanting the shortstop to be traded before the start of the new season, but now with Ha-Seong Kim gone and the Padres without another option for short, Bogaerts must remain a Padre for the foreseeable future, even if his contract does seem like an overpay.

The Bregman deal however should stifle Padres fans concerns about a potential Bogaerts overpay for two reasons. One, the short 3-year deal means the Red Sox do not have control over Bregman for years like the Padres have over Bogaerts. If Boston realizes that the Bregman deal was an overpay and they look to move him in the trade market, teams will be much less likely to trade away prospects or big names for a player with jut a three years, or even less, of team control.

The second reason why Bregman's deal is far worse than Bogaerts is much more obvious. In no world should 30-year-old Alex Bregman be making $40 million a year. In the years of Houston's dominance, Bregman was one of the best third baseman in the league. His ridiculous 2019 season saw him lead the league in WAR, walks, win an All-Star and Silver Slugger, hit 41 home runs, and be fifth in the league with a 1.015 OPS. If the Red Sox were getting that type of player, than the $40 million a year contract would be more than justified, but they're not. His OPS has been slightly above league average in each of the past three seasons, while his WAR has been less than half of his 2019 total in each of the last four. 

To make the contract even more confusing, the Red Sox already have one of the best third basemen in the league in Rafael Devers, who has already said he would not move from third base to a DH role when Bregman arrives. Red Sox President of Baseball Operations Sam Kennedy has also stated the Red Sox will be above the luxury tax limit in 2025, adding to a deal that should have many Red Sox fans scratching their heads in confusion.