AJ Preller let the Giants pick the Padres’ pockets in the Robbie Ray trade

The San Diego Padres desperately needed rotation help with a rotation running on fumes behind Michael King. With the clock ticking on the deadline, AJ Preller did what he does. He reached across the state and across the division to get a former Cy Young Award winner who is pitching well. For Robbie Ray, they gave up right-hander Miguel Mendez and shortstop Joniel Hernandez, which is a…hefty price to pay.

Nobody is arguing they had a need. Nobody is arguing that Ray is an excellent, albeit short-term, solution for that need. But that cost? Woo boy.

That’s quite a haul for two months of Robbie Ray

Prospect rankings are what they are, but according to MLB Pipeline, Mendez was the Padres’ fourth-ranked prospect. He’s in his age-23 season and has had some success in AA already. He does have a 4.93 ERA, but he’s also allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and struck out 38 in 34.2 innings. He’s a near-finished product with a real path to the big leagues. 

Hernandez was ranked ninth by MLB Pipeline and was certainly not a throw-in to the deal. He’s a 17-year-old shortstop putting up excellent numbers with more walks than strikeouts in the Dominican Summer League. Many are more upset about his inclusion than Mendez. 

Ray is still good, but he isn’t a flamethrower in his prime. In the final year of his five-year, $115 million deal, he’s put up a 3.08 ERA with a 20.9 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate. The ERA is shiny, but his xERA of 4.43 probably tells a slightly different story. He does have a 1.69 ERA (with a 3.51 xERA since May 31), but he still isn’t striking out enough while walking a few too many. And this is just a two-month rental with a long injury history. The Giants even had to kick in money to get better prospects (and maybe get the deal done at all). They knew the leverage they had.

The trade was probably worthwhile. CBS Sports gave the Padres an “A” for the deal, arguing the bar was so low that any additional starter was a win. And that’s fair if you’re only grading on need, but that’s not the way to build sustainable success. It’s the sort of short-term math that has made San Diego’s payroll situation a mess heading into the winter.

Preller didn’t just spend the prospects, but he spent even more money on a pitcher who has been durable since his return from Tommy John in 2024, but you still never know. And he’ll be a free agent once this season ends, regardless. 

Ray should and likely will help. He might even make a big difference between playing in the postseason as a road team in the Wild Card series and watching at home. But the Padres just handed the Giants two prospects who could be affordable and controllable for years to come for two months of a 34-year-old. If it works, who cares? But that’s a big risk and something Preller may end up having to work around yet again in a couple of years. 

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