A way too early Padres 2026 starting rotation projection

The Padres made their first real splash in free agency by bringing back right-hander Michael King on a three-year, $75 million deal last Thursday, addressing what was by far the team’s most important need ahead of 2026.

Ahead of King’s return, the Padres only had Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove headlining the rotation. Now that the team has officially brought back King, the starting pitching unit now has much more stability than it first looked like heading into free agency.

Since we are now starting to get a first glance of what the rotation may look like come opening day, here is our way-too-early starting rotation prediction.

Padres 2026 starting rotation projection as the offseason shifts

Nick Pivetta

After putting together an exceptional campaign in 2025, which not many people expected, Pivetta made his way from being the team’s No. 4 starter all the way to serving the role of an ace — a 2.87 ERA over 181.2 innings pitched tells you all you need to know. 

Due to his recent surge over the past 365 days, we expect San Diego’s new skipper, Craig Stammen, to keep Pivetta as the team’s ace.

Michael King

Fans could make the argument for King to be the team’s ace, but with an injury-plagued 2025 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stammen start King off in the middle of the rotation. However, a 3.44 ERA over the course of 73.1 innings is a positive sign for the 30-year-old.

In 2024, King was unarguably the Padres' ace, as he posted a 2.95 ERA over 173.2 innings. The reason Preller and the front office brought him back was that they knew what his ceiling could be, and you best believe he will make an impact in 2026.

Joe Musgrove

We don’t know what to expect from Joe Musgrove in 2026, as the 33-year-old missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He will have a big role in 2026, as he looks to replace the production of both Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish.

In 2024, Musgrove posted a 3.88 ERA over 99.2 innings. Two years prior, he posted a sub-three ERA (2.93) over 181 innings en route to his first and only All-Star selection. Pending any high-end signings, the Padres are going to be heavily reliant on Musgrove to return to his old form this season.

Chris Bassitt

Despite signing Michael King to a lucrative three-year contract, this won’t be the only move Preller makes to address starting pitching. We predict the Padres to sign veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt to a two-year, $30 million contract with an opt-out in 2027.

Bassitt, 36, is coming off a very solid season for his age, posting a 3.96 ERA. Adding him to the back-end of a revamped starting rotation would be incredibly wise for Preller to do, as he provides experience and can serve as a mentor to younger players in the clubhouse.

Kyle Hart

This move will bore a lot of Padres fans, but the team does not have a southpaw in the rotation yet. Kyle Hart could serve as a placeholder as the team’s final starter until Preller cooks up a midseason trade.

While this is definitely boring, the team is enduring a reset year for starting pitching, as Yu Darvish is out for the season, along with Dylan Cease signing elsewhere. After serving time as a starter and a reliever in 2025, Hart brings versatility to the Padres' pitching room as a whole. This is why he will make for a solid No. 5 at least to start the year.

The team didn’t re-sign him for no reason after all.