Is Manny Machado’s ankle injury behind Padres’ July slump?

The San Diego Padres lost slugger Manny Machado to an ankle injury in June. Since his return, he hasn’t done as well as earlier in the season.

Machado sprained his ankle trying to field an infield ground ball. Luckily, he avoided the injured list and didn’t have any fractures.

Machado returned after 11 days, and he’s hitting .210/.297/.383. On the day of the injury, he was hitting .327/.398/.545.

He’s consistently done worse since returning. His win probability per game has been the worst it’s been all season. On his fourth game back, he had a win probability of -0.226, according to Baseball Reference.

Win probability per player gives an idea of how each individual’s performance impacts the team’s likeliness of winning that particular game.

The team itself will finish July with its first sub-.500 month of the year. They enter the weekend just 9-13.

His on-base percentage had also been mainly over .400 before his injury. Since returning, it hasn’t reached .400 at all. His OPS dipped below .900 and his batting average dipped below .300 for the first time since April. He’s undoubtedly struggling to return to his best.

Machado’s fall in performance, however, seems to have been consistently happening over the months.

Padres’ Manny Machado’s performance has been consistently slipping each month

Machado’s injury can’t be fully to blame. He’s had been going backward a little bit each month,  produced fewer hits and runs, and covered fewer total bases over roughly the same at-bats. However, in July, the quality of his hits got significantly worse and he struck out more times than in earlier months.

Machado has produced four home runs each month, but he only produced two doubles and no triples in July.

Though he’s still the best hitter on the team, San Diego shouldn’t rely solely on him. The team struggled when he was out to injury, and they need to provide more reliable power hitters to help.

Fortunately, Tatis seems to be on track to return soon, which may help Machado.