The San Diego Padres playoff odds are looking relatively favorable right at the All-Star break
The San Diego Padres had their fair share of problems crop up during the first half, but the good news is that their playoff chances are still relatively strong.
While they are just 2.4% likely to win the NL West, they remain in good position to take one of the wild card spots giving them 76.4% playoff odds overall at FanGraphs.
The Padres exit the break 52-42, though losers of six of their last 10 games. They sit a seemingly insurmountable 10 games behind the Dodgers for the division, but hold the second wild card position two games ahead of the Phillies and Cardinals.
FanGraphs projects them to win 89 games.
At Baseball Prospectus, they are simulated to win 88 games with a 78.7% chance to make the playoffs.
San Diego Padres battling in tough NL West despite injuries
The Padres had been keeping pace with the Dodgers fairly well before a slump dating back to late June. They are 6-10 in July and dropped three of four games vs. the Dodgers in Los Angeles to open the month.
Fortunately they closed with a series victory over the Diamondbacks to get back on track heading into the break.
Beyond that, there have been a few issues. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been absent all season after fracturing his wrist in the offseason. He is now taking swings again and will hopefully be back by the dog days of August.
Injuries have been an issue overall. Per Spotrac, the Padres have lost the 10th most injured list days (934) and sixth most value ($24,544,655). (Of course, the Dodgers have lost more of each, making complaining too much difficult.)
Still, with some of the strongest pitching in MLB the Padres have been able to withstand relatively well.
They have a farm system that at least gives a little flexibility (13th at FanGraphs) come trade deadline, though it’s uncertain whether they have the financial flexibility to go along with it. (Their payroll ranks in the top five at Spotrac, checking in at $217M.)
MLB Trade Rumors has for some time been arguing the Padres could be a hybrid at the deadline, trading some of that spare pitching to move salary and create space for adding some power to the lineup.
So in any case, it should be an interesting couple of months to watch — and hey, anything can happen in the playoffs. You just have to get there first, and the odds of that seem pretty good right now.
The Padres open the second half against the Mets in New York on Thursday.