Padres: Previewing the team’s 2021 starting rotation

The success of the 2021 San Diego Padres rests almost entirely in the hands of its new-look starting rotation.

Headlined by newcomers Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, this starting five has the potential to be the best in baseball this year. The guys at the back end are hardly slouches, either, with Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon rounding things out while Dinelson Lamet works back from injury this spring.

What’s even crazier is the team’s big midseason splash from a year ago, Mike Clevinger, isn’t part of the picture in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Imagine what that rotation could look like.

But let’s get to it and take a look at what you can expect from this starting five.

Padres have a legitimate Cy Young contender in Yu Darvish

The mismanagement of the Chicago Cubs could pay huge dividends for the Padres this year. Acquired this winter for a package of far-off prospects, the big right-hander is coming off one of the best seasons of his career.

In 2020, he finished second to Trevor Bauer in NL Cy Young voting after leading the league with eight wins and a 2.23 FIP. Armed with the most extensive arsenal in the league, Darvish can deploy up to 11 pitches – and the Padres are perfectly content letting him continue to attack hitters in unorthodox ways.

Just as capable of overpowering with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball as he is freezing hitters with a knee-buckling breaking ball, Darvish could very well find himself in the Cy Young hunt again this season.

• Steamer Projection: 14-8, 189 IP, 3.27 FIP, 11.32 K/9, 2.69 BB/9

Padres: Don’t sleep on what Joe Musgrove brings to the table

When you’re talking about the Padres’ offseason, odds are Joe Musgrove isn’t the first name that comes to mind. You’re far likelier to talk about Snell or Darvish – or even the fact the Friars brought in guys like Keone Kela and Mark Melancon to shore up the bullpen.

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But of all of them, I think Musgrove has the most potential to surprise this year.

To this point, the right-hander had spent his entire career with the Pittsburgh Pirates. While you likely didn’t pay much attention to him given the Bucs’ standing in the game, he quietly became a solid presence in that rotation.

Since 2018, the San Diego area native made 58 starts, compiling a 3.69 FIP and 1.205 WHIP across 325 1/3 innings of work. Baseball Savant loves what he did last year, specifically. In short, he limited hard contact, got a ton of swings and misses and relied on spin rate to keep hitters off-balance.

He throws half a dozen pitches, but last season, he relied more than ever on his curveball – to devastatingly good results. Opponents batted just .050 against that pitch. So expect to see him break plenty of them off in a Padres uniform.

• Steamer Projection: 129-9, 169 IP, 3.95 FIP, 9.02 K/9, 2.57 BB/9

Padres need Chris Paddack to return to form this season

When he’s at his best, Chris Paddack is a commanding presence on the mound. Unfortunately, he wasn’t quite that last year and went from Opening Day starter to being skipped in the rotation come October.

But after an offseason focused around analytics and data, the right-hander is ready to prove that his 2019 performance was no fluke and is far more representative of what he’s capable of as opposed to last year, when he struggled to a 5.02 FIP in a dozen starts.

If you dig in and try and figure out where it all went wrong, nothing really jumps off the page. His pitch mix was almost identical year-over-year, but all of the sudden, hitters were teeing off on his fastball – which was previously a big-time swing-and-miss pitch.

Working with the organization, Paddack identified a lack of vertical movement on it – which kept it flat and made it easier for hitters to square up. He spent the winter working on addressing this, which should make the pitch move across multiple planes like it did two years ago. If he’s successful, the right-hander could be a key part of this rotation again in 2021.

• Steamer Projection: 9-7, 125 IP, 3.88 FIP, 9.44 K/9, 2.36 BB/9

Padres are hoping Dinelson Lamet can stay healthy this year

The big question mark in this rotation is Dinelson Lamet.

So far, it’s been nothing but good news concerning the right-hander, who continues to ramp up down in Arizona. He hasn’t appeared yet in a Cactus League game, but tossed a pair of frames in a simulated game this week – marking the first time he’s done so this spring.

Lamet finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting last season but a late-season injury cost him come postseason time. He rode his sinker-fastball-slider repertoire to a 2.09 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 2020 – and if he’s healthy and at his best this year, he’ll be the guy that takes the Padres’ rotation over-the-top.

Last season, he relied on his slider in new ways and it unlocked something for the right-hander. Opponents hit just .080 against it and the emergence of that offering led to his ranking in the top six percent of the league with a strikeout rate north of 34 percent.

If he’s not healthy, then the Padres will look to Adrian Morejon to open the season. That seems to be the plan for Opening Week, at least, as San Diego isn’t taking any chances when it comes to Lamet. But upon his return, Morejon can slot in as a much-needed swingman out of the pen.